Overview of emerging power management opportunities

First, I must thank my friends, Lou Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, and Aabid Husain, VP of sales and marketing, from Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor, for sharing the presentations made during an EE Times virtual conference on emerging power management opportunities held on Sept. 16.

The conference participants were:
* Stephan Ohr, panel moderator and research director, Analog and Power Semiconductors, Gartner Inc.
* John Pigott, Freescale fellow, and analog IC guru and designer, Freescale Semiconductor.
* Ralf J. Muenster, director strategy and business development, National Semiconductor.
* Wayne Chen, VP for Technology and Operations, Triune Systems.
*  Lou N. Hutter, SVP and GM, Analog Foundry Business Unit, Dongbu HiTek Semiconductor.

Gartner’s Ohr started by indicating Gartner’s position on power management products. The standard analog ICs were a $15.2 billion market globally in 2009. Voltage regulators made up $7,394 billion, amplifiers $2,675 billion, data converters $2,567 billion, other analog $1,331 billion, and interface ICs $1,198 billion, respectively.

Voltage regulators – power management ICs accounted for 48.8 percent of the analog market. Voltage regulators continue to show strongest growth, growing at a CAGR of 11.1 percent for the period 2009-2014.

Power management ICs forecast
The global revenue forecast for power management ICs by market segment is as follows:

Military and aerospace: This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 3.2 percent during 2009-14.
Industrial/medical: This is likely to grow from $1,118 million in 2009 to $1,779 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Automotive: This is likely to grow from $415 million in 2009 to $622 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 8.4 percent.
Communications: This is likely to grow from $529 million in 2009 to $988 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.3 percent.
Wireless: This is likely to grow from $1,353 million in 2009 to $2,149 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.7 percent.
Storage: This is likely to grow at a CAGR of 13.3 percent during 2009-14.
Computing: This is likely to grow from $2,114 million in 2009 to $4,013 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 13.7 percent.
Consumer: This is likely to grow from $1,627 million in 2009 to $2,564 million in 2014, at a CAGR of 9.5 percent.

Server and wired communications remain the biggest drivers.

Emergence of BCD technology
Lou Hutter from Dongbu HiTek discussed the technology considerations for emerging power management markets. He focused on the emergence of BCD (Bipolar/CMOS/DMOS) technology.

There are multiple benefits of BCD technology. These include integration of bipolar, CMOS, and DMOS components. It enables the integration of logic, analog control, and power on same die. It also enables high-and low-voltage, and high-and low-power functions on same die. BCD further enables reduced chip count, and improves reliability through fewer package interconnects. It also enables reduced BOM costs.

Emerging markets, such as automotive, solar and energy harvesting, stand to benefit from BCD. Dongbu is offering the 0.18um platform, which boasts of IP portability and more. Dongbu is offering the BD180LV-30V power process (Epi), to be followed by the BD180LV-30V power process (Non-Epi) in 3Q10, the BD180X 40-60V power process in 4Q10, and finally, the HP180 precision analog in 2Q11.

Hutter explained the BD180LV-30V Optimized Power and BD180X – 60V Optimized Power processes. Optional modules in Dongbu Hitek’s BCD technology include Schottky Diode, thick Cu, PLDMOS, NVM, low power CMOS, low noise CMOS, respectively.

Semicon rankings 2009: Global revenue dips, but did anyone tell that to Apac suppliers?

Recently, I received a report from iSuppli, which boldly stated that Asia-Pacific semiconductor suppliers defied the downturn in 2009. It said: “combined revenue for semiconductor suppliers headquartered in the Asia-Pacific region actually grew by 2.3 percent in 2009 to reach $44.5 billion, up from $43.5 billion in 2008. In contrast, global semiconductor revenue in 2009 fell by 11.7 percent to $229.9 billion, down from $260.2 billion in 2008.”

Today, there’s a report from Gartner stating that the total worldwide semiconductor revenue reached $228.4 billion in 2009, down $26.8 billion, or 10.5 percent, from 2008.

Which report would you prefer reading first? I’d go with iSuppli’s report!

Final Total Semiconductor Revenues by Region (Revenue Millions of US Dollars): Source: iSuppli, USA

One, it is no surprise that Asia based semicon suppliers have done so well. That’s not all! Only two major semiconductor product segments escaped the downturn of 2009: LEDs and NAND flash memory. Korean and Taiwan based suppliers have led the way.

Let’s look at iSuppli’s list of top 25 suppliers for 2009. First, the movers or suppliers that had positive growth in 2009 or improved their rankings. The movers were:

* Samsung at no. 2 with 3.5 percent growth

* Hynix at no. 7 with 3.7 percent change over 2009; in fact, Hynix improved its position from no. 9 in 2008 to no. 7 in 2009

* Elpida Memory at no. 15 with 9.7 percent change over 2009; Elpida improved its position from 19th in 2008 to 15th in 2009.

* Mediatek at no. 16 with 22.6 percent growth; Mediatek also improved its ranking from no. 24 in in 2008 to no. 16 in 2009 — a sizeable jump up.

Interesting, isn’t it? All of these suppliers are from Asia! Two Korean and one each from Taiwan and Japan, respectively.

Also, if you look at the top 25 suppliers, barring these four, none of the others managed a positive growth or change in 2009.

If you need to look at some other movers in iSuppli’s table, here they are:

* Qualcomm — moved up from 8th in 2008 to 6th in 2009.

* AMD — moved up from 12th in 2008 to 8th in 2009.

* Micron — moved up from 16th in 2008 to 13th in 2009.

Nothing much to speak about the rest! Is that expected? Perhaps, it is! 2009 has been a year best forgotten.

Top 10 semiconductor vendors by revenue estimates, 2009 (Millions of US Dollars): Source: Gartner, USA

Now. when I look at Gartner’s top 10 semiconductor vendors, it also indicates Samsung and Hynix as the only two suppliers within the top 10 to register some positive growth in 2009.

LEDs, NAND beat downturn

Coming back to iSuppli’s report, with LEDs and NAND beating the downturn, it said: “with expanding demand from mobile products such as cell phones, the NAND Flash market grew by more than 15 percent in 2009. LEDs saw a rapid rise in adoption in a wide range of applications, especially in backlighting of LCD-TVs, causing their revenue to rise by more than 5 percent.”

iSuppli even goes on to mention the creditable performance of Seoul Semiconductor in LEDs. Also, it mentions that more than half of Taiwanese suppliers achieved revenue growth in 2009. MediaTek, Nanya Technology and Macronix International led the way for Taiwan with growth of 22.6 percent, 21.2 percent and 14.4 percent, respectively.

How Taiwan government reacts to DRAM turmoil is a lesson in itself!

Taiwan based DRAMeXchange recently sent me a release, which discussed in length the steps the Taiwan government is taking in an attempt to “save one of the ‘2 trillion twin stars’, the DRAM industry”. The Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs (MoEA) was designated to draft the policies, principals, strategic goals and strategic directions of the DRAM industry rescue plan.

According to DRAMeXchange: At 6 PM, December 16, the Taiwanese Ministry of Economic Affairs held a press conference about the DRAM rescue plan, emphasized in the past 10 years the investment amount of the DRAM industry surpassed NT$ 850 billion, and created a complete industry supply chain, which widely covers upstream chip makers, to downstream packaging and testing companies, and module houses. If the recession brought down the industry, the Taiwan industrial chain will be affected severely.

The Taiwanese government showed sincerity and willingness, and hoped that Taiwanese DRAM vendors can actively start to consolidate horizontally and vertically, and make joint proposing plans to the government. The government will not take the leading position, but the strategic direction is long term integration, which is not just merger but also includes cooperation of co-research, co-develop, and co-manufacturing.

The government also emphasized that it will tend to strengthen the relationship among the co-operation of Taiwanese, American, and Japanese DRAM vendors.

In another report, Gartner has gone as far as dubbing the DRAM industry as the wild card for the semiconductor industry in 2009! The DRAM industry has been in a downturn for the past 18 months and losses are now approaching $12 billion, it says.

How the Taiwanese DRAM industry reacts to the efforts of the Taiwan government will be visible in the coming months. Among other bail out plans, the Taiwan government has also focused on the need for the local industry to develop its own technology.

Taiwan takes great pride in having been a leader in technology and R&D for long. If the DRAM industry does not recover quickly enough, it would indeed impact the country’s industrial chain as well.

What’s interesting to note is the key role the government of Taiwan is playing in all of this. It again stresses the importance of government contribution within the semiconductor industry. And, there is also a lesson in all of this for India!

Closer home, in India, I am (and I am sure, interested readers and parties are too) still waiting to hear on what happened to the several proposals that were received for solar/PV, as well as on the various state policies, especially, Karnataka.

All believe that these would surely get pushed through in the new year. However, there is a need to show some speed in this regard as well. You cannot afford to wait for too long in the semiconductor industry. The SemIndia fab story is all to well known and hopefully, still fresh in everyone’s minds.

Solar, semi rocking in India; global semi recovery in 2010?

Wow! What a start for October! We have had a whole new range of activities going on! Fist, late September, the India Semiconductor Association organized a solar/PV conclave in New Delhi, where plans were laid out for India’s roadmap in the solar/PV field. the ISA-NMCC (National Manufacturing Competitiveness Council) report on the Indian solar PV market was also released at the conclave.

According to Poornima Shenoy, president, ISA, the year 2015 could be important for this industry. She said, “Around this time, the product cost of the Indian solar PV industry is likely to match the semi grid parity (peak power) globally, and also to match the grid parity within India.”

Next, AMD joined hands with Advanced Technology Investment Co. (ATIC) of Abu Dhabi to create “The Foundry Company”, a leading-edge foundry production outfit. It will also join the IBM joint development alliance for silicon-on-insulator (SOI) and bulk silicon through 22nm generation. It will be very interesting to see how AMD now takes on Intel!

Messe Munchen put out a white paper on “How China, India and Eastern Europe are changing the global electronics market.” This is not surprising at all! You can download the report by clicking on the link here, and I must say, the report is really engaging!

On the same lines, Gartner came up with its analysis that China is dominating the global semiconductor scene, and that both India and Vietnam are gaining! India’s growing might in semicon is well documented! Also, last month, I had mentioned how the lack of a fab or the exit of a top professional from an Indian semicon firm would not hamper India’s growing fortunes in this industry!

The trials and tribulations of the global semiconductor industry were already touched upon by Derek Lidow of iSuppli. Analysts such as Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons and those at Gartner have been saying similar things, more or less. Penn advises that this is the time to stop chasing fashion and get back to basics. He adds, “The good news being the industry basics are mercifully as good as they get back.”

Gartner only expects a recovery for semiconductors sometime in 2010! According to Gartner, a collapse in memory spending, combined with a weak economy, is driving a major contraction in semiconductor capital equipment spending in 2008. The slowdown is likely to continue into 2009 before the industry recovers in 2010.

SEMI now has a presence in India. Sathya Prasad, formerly of Cadence, has been appointed as president of SEMI India with immediate effect. This is a further indication of India’s growing leadership in the semicon space. I will be getting into a discussion with Sathya Prasad sometime later.

Of course, we have the usual stuff like companies selling off or retiring 200mm fabs. Examples are NXP, Hynix, Renesas, etc. Also, DRAM prices continue to be weak and suppliers could likely face a credit crunch.

Interesting mix of happenings, isn’t it! While India rocks in solar and semicon, we are still speculating on a recovery for the global semiconductor industry. About time India took the lead in making that happen!

Finally, I was busy with Durga Puja, and hence, didn’t blog in a while. Will try my best and make up for my absence. I would like to take this opportunity to wish SHUBHO BIJOYA to all of my Bengali and non-Bengali friends.