Will the solar bubble really burst in 2009?

Will this actually happen? Will the solar bubble burst in 2009 as supply exceeds demand? I don’t know, but I came across this news and am pleased to share with you.

According to Lux Research, the overall solar industry revenues will grow to $70.9 billion in 2012, but oversupply and new technologies will squeeze today’s leaders! This has been reported in its new report titled “Solar State of the Market Q1 2008: The End of the Beginning.”

As per Lux Research’s study, the solar industry has been having a remarkable run, attracting the attention of all stakeholders. However, all of this activity has also led to the growth of a bubble, which will most likely burst some time soon.

Lux Research says that while growth will continue to be robust — solar industry revenues will grow at a brisk 27 percent annual rate to reach $70.9 billion in 2012, up from $21.2 billion in 2007 — the solar industry will look very different just two years from now!

“Government subsidies in countries like Japan, Germany, and Spain have helped make large-scale solar a reality, with annual installations reaching 3.43GW in 2007,” said Lux Research Senior Analyst Ted Sullivan, the report’s lead author. “During this period, solar demand has consistently outpaced supply. But the market is now approaching a tipping point. We project that the supply of solar modules will exceed demand in 2009, leading to falling prices and a shake-out among companies that aren’t prepared to thrive in this new environment -– particularly crystalline silicon players that haven’t invested in new thin-film technologies.”

Interesting comments! At the recently concluded ISA’s Vision Summit, it was disclosed by Jairam Ramesh, union minister of state for Commerce, that the Indian government had received seven confirmed investments in the Hyderabad Fab city, with a total value of $7 billion for 10 years.

Five firms have been given principle approval with $1 billion investment. Proposals of three other firms — Videocon, Moser Baer, and Hindustan Semicon Manufacturing Corporation (HSMC), have yet to be considered.

Reliance is said to have put forward a proposal for solar/PV manufacturing facility with an investment of $5 billion in Jamnanagar. This proposal is under consideration. The majority of firms proposed to set up in Fab city are mainly focused on solar/PV.

As I said in that blog, the last bit is the interesting part. If everyone focuses on solar/PV, who will focus on the other ancillaries required to complete the semicon ecosystem? What about the LCD, OLED plants, etc., that were mentioned in the semiconductor policy? Now, with the Lux Research report predicting a squeeze next year, these Indian companies investing in solar/PV fabs need to be careful about how they go about setting up their businesses.

The solar business will surely be a space worth watching over the coming years!

Movers and shakers in semicon; new fabs in Asia

While speaking with the Fabless Semiconductor Association, USA, some time back, I quizzed them on the major movers and shakers (or slips) among the top 25, and what are the reasons for those.

Qualcomm has broken into the top 10 for the first time. It’s the first time in the history of semiconductors that such a thing has happened, and is probably a sign of the times ahead.

One reason for this growth has been — Increasing foundry orders. A Digitimes article reported that Qualcomm will increase orders by 15-20 percent in the September quarter to meet projections of strong 3G handset sales. According to the article, sources at Qualcomm suggest that wafer starts per month in the December quarter could surpass 30,000.

There have also been reports of strong June quarter for 2007. Qualcomm’s $2.32 billion in June quarter sales represents 19 percent year-on-year growth. Record chipset volumes of 65 million were at the high end of 62 million-65 million guidance. UMTS chipset shipments were noted to have increased by 127 percent year-over-year and 79 percent quarter-over-quarter, with the quarter-over-quarter growth rate roughly 4 times the market growth rate.

Finally, chipset ASPs increased by 2 percent year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter, and are likely to remain stable.

Situation in Asia
FSA quoted the Strategic Marketing Association’s Quarterly Spot Report – July. While there have been announcements in India by SemIndia, HSMC, Moser Baer, etc., for fabs, there is every likelihood of another fab in the eastern Indian state of West Bengal. The technology ministry announced plans for a yet to be named fab at the India Design Center. Another possibility is a fab in Kochi, South India, by the NeST Group.

In China, Strategic Marketing Association expects that eight new fabs will start construction this year. Two fabs have started construction in the first quarter (Hua Hong NEC and ProMOS), and two more have started construction in the second quarter.

Grace Semiconductor, now headed by former Infineon boss, Dr. Ulrich Schumacher, which opened its first fab in 2003, began moving equipment into the shell of Fab 2, which was built at the same time as Fab 1. The company is installing used equipment and plans to begin production in Q1 0f 2008. The company also plans to begin building a 300mm fab, perhaps as early as next year, although financing is said to remain an issue for such a project.

Also in China, IC Spectrum began building a 200mm fab in Kunshan, about 45km east of Shanghai. Using 0.35micron technology from Toshiba, the new foundry expects to begin volume production by the first quarter of 2009.

TSMC began production in the second phase of its 300mm Fab 14 in Tainan in the south of Taiwan. This $2.4 billion fab will start production at 65nm and move to 45nm in 2008. There are also plans for a 300mm Fab 14, Phase 3 at the same location.

Looking at capex
In 2007, companies with capital spending budgets of $1 billion or more (the Billion Dollar Club) will account for 77 percent of all capital spending. Most of these companies (13 out of 20) are memory companies. Nine of these companies are from Asia Pacific (South Korea, China, Taiwan and Southeast Asia). Together, they plan to spend $23 billion this year, more than half of what the Billion Dollar Club has budgeted for capital spending.

India's semicon policy takes off

Close on the heels of the historic Indian semicon policy announced earlier this year comes the news that Hindustan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (HSMC) would be setting up a semicon foundry in India partnering with Infineon Technologies for CMOS licences. It’s no surprise to see Infineon among the early movers as Infineon has been present in India for quite a while now.

This is excellent news as far as the Indian semiconductor industry is concerned. I remember the day the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) was formed in Bangalore in early November 2004. The ISA is a very young industry body and all kudos to it for having taken forward the Indian industry so very well.

Congratulations are also due to Honourable minister, Dayanidhi Maran for having the foresight and for believing in the semiconductor industry.

Not only would the semicon industry boost India’s GDP in the coming years, the policy should also see India emerging as a destination of choice for manufacturing of high-tech products in the future.

This January, while attending the VLSI conference in Bangalore, I had the pleasure of learning about the various incentives some of the state governments, such as those of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal have to offer to investors.

Other state governments should come forward as well and make India’s dream of becoming a semicon giant a success and help the semicon policy really take off.

Following HSMC’s announcement, we have now come to expect more such announcements in the near future. All of this really augurs well for India. It will also change the global perception that India is the destination for software and outsourcing.

We can do it. Time to show the world. Well done ISA. Well done Minister. And well done HSMC and Infineon