Where is Indian semiconductor industry headed?

It has been a pretty disappointing year for me, so far, owing to one or another family related problems. I’ve only flattered, to deceive, as one would put it! Not that I’m out of my troubles, but am sure I can ‘play my game as usual’, hopefully, without any further disruptions.

First, I have been closely following the global semiconductor industry, despite my troubles, and there’s really nothing new worth reporting, at least, so far!  Hope the next month and the rest of the year are better! But first, my take on the Indian semiconductor industry, which has now started to disappoint! At least, yours truly!

Last July, I had done a post, where, Len Jelinek, director and chief analyst for semiconductor manufacturing at iSuppli, (now IHS iSuppli) had said to a question on the need for a foundry for the Indian semiconductor industry that: “If there is a foundry built in India, it will have to start at mature technology, which they will have to underprice just to get business. Financially, this makes no sense for any investor, except for the government, which can protect the foundry (their investment) through tariffs.”

It is going to be a year since the remark was made!

This February, at the ISA Vision Summit, one heard  a well known personality voice concern that the manufacturing sector suffers from a confidence deficit. A part of the software successes have been due to a brand developed. He said: “We have the advantage of a great brand, and need to make use of it in the electronics manufacturing sector. The government recognizes the need to convert Indian into a global destination.”

Where is the recognition to help create Indian into a global destination happening? Does it really take so long to develop a semicon policy in the first place? It is strange that perhaps, six and a half years since it was set up (Oct. 30, 2004), the ISA has still not found any takers for a fab in India!

Elsewhere, I mentioned that the latest ISA-Frost report on the status of the Indian semiconductor industry does not sound accurate! I don’t have anything personal against the Indian arms of MNCs, but why are they made even part of the report? I don’t recall seeing a similar report from China or Japan or Taiwan, that does a similar thing!

Where are the Indian semiconductor companies in the first place? One of India’s major semicon firms, the Srini Rajam-led Ittiam Systems, recorded a growth of Rs. 52 crore in 2010, while another significant ODM player, SFO Technologies from Kochi, Kerala, was said to be achieving Rs. 750-800 crore in 2010. What about the other Indian companies? To be accurate: what’s even happening with the Karnataka Semicon Policy? And, don’t some of the other Indian states deserve similar policies?

There are certain things that the Indian semicon industry needs to do, unless it wants to be written out of reckoning in the global context.
1) Focus on the needs of the Indian semicon companies only!
2) Prepare industry reports that highlight the capabilities of Indian semicon firms only; it does not matter how small those firms are! At least, we will have correct reports presenting the right picture.
3) I mentioned 10 points the Indian semicon industry needs to focus on in a post “Long wait for Indian semicon industry?” Perhaps, some, if not all, need to be paid attention to!

I am also told that the ISA president, Ms Poornima Shenoy is leaving, to start a new business. My best wishes to her for a successful career!

Evolution of wireless market and emerging trends: Qualcomm

Matt Grob, SVP, corporate R&D, Qualcomm.

At the ISA CXO Conclave, Matt Grob, SVP, corporate R&D, Qualcomm, said that the company is a world leader in next-generation mobile technologies. It is celebrating 25 years of driving the evolution of wireless communications. It is making wireless more personal, affordable and accessible to people everywhere. Qualcomm is also the world’s largest fabless semiconductor company, #1 in wireless, and #9 in semiconductors.

Qualcomm’s unique business model is to be a technology enabler for the entire mobile value chain. It has continued strategic R&D investments, totalling more than $15.4 billion in 2010.

Industry trends
The 2G to 3G migration is currently taking place, with over 3.1 billion 3G subscriptions likely in 2015.  As for the emerging region growth, China leads with 640 percent, followed by Latin America at 465 percent and India at 168 percent, respectively.

Qualcomm is also said to be enabling the mobile broadband in India with 3G and LTE. Besides growing the LTE TDD ecosystem in region, it is building partnerships for long-term strategy and establishing 3G/LTE as best technology path for operators. Qualcomm is also driving the device evolution and growing the market by creating more choices for operators and consumers. It is developing low-cost 3G handsets for emerging markets using 1+ GHz mobile processors and supporting multiple popular OS.

The smartphone industry momentum has ensured that the ecosystem is benefitting from and driving growth. There has been as much as >25 percent YoY data revenue growth from leading operators. OEMs have launched 100+ new smartphones in the first half of CY 2010. The total mobile apps downloads from developers is likely to move up from 7 billion in 2009 to 50 billion by 2012.

Indian semicon market update shows 28.3 percent growth in 2010!

I am a bit amused to read the latest key findings on the Indian semiconductor market from ISA-Frost & Sullivan. Never mind!

Source: ISA-Frost

The report concludes that products demonstrating potential for explosive growth include –mobile devices, telecom base stations, LCD TV, STB, EMS, CFL, LED lights and smart cards and products with low MI – notebooks, tablets, STBs routers, digital cameras, etc. need to be given preferential treatment for indigenous manufacturing.

India is becoming the hub for small car manufacturing. Incentives and encouragement need to be provided for enhancing automotive component manufacturing in the country to keep pace with automobile industry growth.

Products enabling energy efficiency need to be incentivized through tax breaks for R&D and product development thereby promoting indigenous manufacturing. Electronics and semiconductor MI stagnate at 50 percent;  the TAM growth is unlikely to match the TM growth in the near future! Continuing status quo — the electronics import bill to surpass crude import bill by 2020-21.

The need of the hour is a focused mission for local electronics manufacturing promotion. A National Electronics Development Plan is also required. As is required an electronics policy for ecosystem development; subsidies for manufacturing; funds for R&D; extended tax breaks; hardware development parks.

Otherwise, the report suggests that India’s semiconductor market grew by a phenomenal 28.3 percent in 2010.

Indian semicon market: Source: ISA-Frost

The global semiconductor market’s cyclical trends has minimal impact on India. Mobile devices, telecom and IT/ OA contributed 82 percent to semiconductor TM in 2010.

Local manufacturing of telecom equipment by OEMs and EMS companies to propel related semiconductor consumption by a massive 50 percent during 2010 to 2012. Influenced by regulatory norms and sharpening competition, automotive segment to account for the highest growth in semiconductor demand at 31 percent from 2010 to 2012.

Sustained gulf between the semiconductor TM and TAM from 2010-2012 highlight the urgency to promote local manufacturing to drive higher growth in TAM.

The Total Semiconductor Market (TM) revenues are poised to grow from $6.55 billion in 2010to $9.86 billion in 2012. The market is expected to witness a CAGR of 22.7 percent.

During the corresponding period, the Total Semiconductor Available Market (TAM) revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 22.3 percent reaching revenues of $4.71 billion in 2012from $3.14 billion in 2010. Mobile devices and telecom are the key contributors to TAM while mobile devices and IT/ OA are the key contributors to TM.

Being an indispensable component in a wide range of products, the memory market leads the contribution to semiconductor revenues with 23.4 percent and 20.1 percent of TM and TAM, respectively.

One hopes that all of this is indeed correct, and the Indian semiconductor industry continues to grow in future!

Yet another plan for semicon fabs in India?

Interesting! I am a bit surprised to read the news item that India is planning to build its own commercial semiconductor fabs, worth Rs. 25,000 crores or $5 billion.

One of the lines in the release by the PIB, Government of India, states that the electronics hardware sector is capital intensive and facing several disabilities and barriers Therefore, the proposal will have significant impact in resolving these issues and help Indian electronics hardware industry to develop localized content/value addition.

Hasn’t this line been repeated time and again? And, what has been the result? Let’s hope that India does not forget the mistakes committed during the initial semicon policy or SIPS.

Coming back to the PIB release, it is stated that the Empowered Committee shall submit its recommendations to the Government by 31.7.2011.  Why does the Committee need so much time? Hasn’t pages and pages been written about India’s semicon policy? I wonder whether folks have even looked into all of this properly!

Next, the timing itself! In a post last April, I had mentioned that  the Indian semiconductor policy, which was announced back in 2007, had supposedly expired on March 31, 2010! What have the so-called industry caretakers been doing up until now? One does not plan to release a revised policy more than a year post its expiry! It should be immediate!!

It was also proposed to extend the deadline of India’s semicon policy up to March 2015! Whatever happened to that?

Where will the proposed semiconductor fab or fabs be set up? At FabCity in Hyderabad? I don’t think so!

One good thing to come out of all this — there is still some hope for having a fab in India. I am using the word ‘hope’ as there are many, including myself, who feel that all of this is perhaps, a wee bit late call!

As of now, India could possibly look globally for any fab or fabs to buy out! It simply does not have the time to build one!  By the time this Committee comes out with its responses by end July 2011, it will be too late. Here’s why!

Let’s say that some folks could actually invest money to build a fab. This will be followed by trying to find a land, and then, possible investors. By the time all of this happens, it will be a good 12-18 months, or possibly, 2013. Next, what’s going to be the nature of the fab that India builds? Is it 200nm, or 300nm, or 28nm? How much would a state-of-the-art fab actually cost? Has any study been done of where the global industry would be by the time a semicon fab start in India?

These, and many more such questions need to answered.

'Long wait' for Indian semiconductor industry?

I still don’t quite understand the submission made by the IT Taskforce on recommendations for the Indian hardware and electronics manufacturing! The first proposal was submitted by this Taskforce, back in Nov. 2009! Now, a leading daily comes out with a report about a new prescription to boost electronics manufacturing. What is all this?

By itself, isn’t this a ‘long wait’ for the Indian semiconductor and electronics industries?

I repeat: Have we really done enough, even in  the past, to even boost electronics hardware manufacturing in the country? If yes, then where are the mini Hsinchus and Shenzhens within India? N. Vittal had said something similar (such as developing mini Hong Kongs and Singapores) some years ago, but that seems ages ago, now!

Back in April 2010, I had written a post titled: Did you know that the Indian semicon policy had expired and now requires an extension? The next thing one heard was in July 2010: Indian industry proposes to extend deadline of India’s semicon policy up to March 2015!

What is really happening with the Indian semiconductor industry? First up, the semiconductor indusrty is NOT the IT industry. However, it appears that it is being treated like one!

Did anyone really look into the reason why fabs never happened in round 1 of the SIPS? Perhaps, not! I had asked a question, back in Feb. 2009: The Indian silicon wafer fab story seems dead and buried. Should we revive it?

Lest I be repetitive, and boring, I had suggested a 10-point program for the Karnataka semicon policy — in another blog post — on June 29, 2008. The points were:

1. A long-term semiconductor policy running 20-25 years or so.
2. Core team of top Indian leaders from Indian firms and MNCs, as well as technology institutes in Karnataka to oversee policy implementation.
3. Incentives such as government support, including stake in investments, and tax holidays.
4. Strong infrastructure availability and management.
5. Focus on having solar/PV fabs in the state.
6. Consider having 150/180/200mm fabs that tackle local problems via indigenous applications.
7. Develop companies in the assembly testing, verification and packaging (ATMP) space.
8. Attract companies in fields such as RFID, to address local problems and develop local applications.
9. Pursue companies in PDP, OLED/LED space to set up manufacturing units.
10. Promote and set up more fabless units.

All that one needs to do is to simply extend this all across India, rather than waste time in devising policies that have either expired, or well, take ages to see the light of the day! We should also refrain from discussing wafer fabs for now, and focus on fabless. Although, if we do attract and develop a local fab, that would be great for India!

Wonder, whether anyone in India is even listening!

Study on semiconductor design, embedded software and services industry in India

The India Semiconductor Association (ISA) has released a study on semiconductor design, embedded software and services industry, along with Ernst & Young.

According to the report, the key challenges constraining the growth of the semiconductor design industry are summarized under five major issues:
i) Quality, availability and maturity of talent.
ii) Absence of a startup and SME ecosystem.
iii) Lack of a semiconductor ecosystem.
iv) Lack of adequate infrastructure, policies and implementable incentives.
v) External issues such as competition from Asian countries and protectionist policies by some countries.

The report then goes on to tackle each one of these issues in detail under elaborate recommendations.

These recommendations require the concerted and co-ordinated efforts by the government, industry and academia to aid India reach the next level of growth and achieve the specific goals envisaged for the industry. The goals are:

Goal 1: Maintain leadership in semiconductor design by incubating 50 fabless semiconductor companies, each with the potential to grow to $200 million in annual revenues by 2020.

Goal 2: Build on India’s favorable intellectual property protection image and make it among the top 5 destinations for intellectual property creation in the semiconductor design industry.

Goal 3: Capitalize on indigenous demand in strategic sectors to provide impetus to the Indian fabless semiconductor industry.

Goal 4: Sustain and nurture high-class semiconductor design manpower at a growth rate of 20 percent year-on-year to double its current output levels to reach a workforce size of 400,000 in the next five years.

The very first goal itself is a bit far fetched, but not that it can’t be achieved. To reach anywhere close to this goal, a concerted all round effort would be required from all in the industry. The fourth goal would have been better as the first goal, but never mind.

The second goal looks fine, but it is the third goal that seems a bit far off. This is April 2011, and still, there are talks about capitalizing on the indigenous demand in strategic sectors in order to provide impetus to the Indian fabless semiconductor industry?

I recall a discussion in mid-2005 where an industry expert mentioned that fabless was the way forward for the Indian industry! Between then and now, fabs were supposed to come up, but they failed. Nevertheless, one must not give up hope!

Indian semicon industry poised at very interesting juncture: Dr. Pradip Dutta, Synopsys

Dr. Pradip Dutta, corporate VP of Synopsys Inc. and MD of Synopsys (India).

I have known Dr Pradip Dutta, corporate VP of Synopsys Inc. and MD of Synopsys (India), as well as vice chairman, India Semiconductor Association (ISA), and now, chairman designate for 2011, ISA, for close to a decade now. We recently got into an interesting discussion on the Indian semiconductor industry.

Growth of semicon and electronics in India
First, I asked what should be done about the growth of semiconductors and electronics in the Indian eco-system?

Dr. Dutta said: “My view on this subject has been the same for many years now; high-tech electronics has to be a national mission. The defense and the government labs played a major role in promoting this sector in the US; e.g. Sandia National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA etc. DARPA, which is part of US Department of Defense has sponsored phenomenal amount of research in semiconductors and electronics.

“If we now look at countries closer to our part of the world, in Asia, we will see a similar focused effort from the governments. The STARC initiative in Japan, the National SOC program in Taiwan, the 839 program in Korea, the 863 program of Ministry of Science and Technology in China, all catered to a flourishing investment in R&D and innovation in high tech. Our country is poised for it too. We need to encourage start-ups in fabless design, explore manufacturing, foster innovation, create favorable policies for the industry and most certainly develop the talent pool.”

Need for domestic manufacturing
There is a need for domestic manufacturing in high tech electronics. Where are the Indian companies going? According to him, domestic manufacturing in high tech electronics has been flagged as a critical area in the ESDM (Electronic Design and Manufacturing) report that was submitted to the government by the industry in 2010. There is a need for initial funding, both in R&D as well as manufacturing. Duty structures need to be rationalized between import of CBU, SKD, CKD and components.

He added: “We have seen that manufacturing prospers in cluster environment and hence there is a recommendation to promote manufacturing clusters for specific product categories. However, it is safe to say that we have long ways to go in this area.”

Co-operation with international trade bodies
Now, what is the required policy framework and co-operation with international trade bodies?  As per Dr. Dutta, the ISA has been active in forging close working relationships with multiple trade bodies from various parts of the world. “We have signed several MoUs with entities such as HTIA (Israel), ASTSA (Japan), DSP Valley (Belgium), TSIA (Taiwan), Semi (USA), GSA (USA) and UKTI (UK).

“Of course, we need to have a focus and these relationships should be driven by strategy. We have carried several delegations to these countries and hosted bi-lateral visits as well. These visits provide an opportunity for our member companies to have direct B2B opportunities.

“We learn valuable best practices from other entities and try and implement in our environment. For example, Israel does a great job in taking innovative ideas from entrepreneurs to incubation, many times inside of universities, and then spinning them into companies which later become part of the global value chain. In the process, this small country has created at least 150 NASDAQ listed high tech firms. Innovation to incubation to wealth creation – a formula that works very well there. We could certainly learn a lot from that model.”

Future of Indian semicon industry
So, how does Dr. Pradip Dutta see the Indian semicon industry, going forward? He said: “The Indian semiconductor industry is now poised at a very interesting juncture. While the MNCs are designing chips at the bleeding edge, we see a lot of high quality work being done by the design service companies and also local start-ups. Incidentally, the start-up scenario is quite active in the system space. This ties in with the ESDM focus of our industry. 

What's happening with Karnataka semicon policy?

What’s happening with the Indian semiconductor industry? Rather, what’s happening with the Karnataka semicon policy? I was rather surprised to receive an invite to an event held last Friday at Bangalore’s The Lalit Ashok Hotel.

First, I did not make it to the event! However, one finds that the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) has organized an event, along with the Government of Karnataka, and that too in early 2011!

Excuse me, what is the Government of Karnataka doing in 2011 with a policy, which it is itself responsible for placing late! Okay, even if it is doing something, or well, trying to do something, why not in 2010 itself, especially when the Karnataka semicon policy was announced!

Now, the focus of the policy is:
a) Retain its edge in design by attracting fresh investments and expansion by existing companies within the state.
b) Attract manufacturing related investments by focusing on three key activities.
I. Promote Karnataka as a semiconductor design hub.
II. Attract investments in high-tech semiconductor manufacturing.
III. Promote generation and use of green energy, specifically, solar energy.
IV. Focus on manpower development.

All of this is fine! It is very well known and quite clear to the Indian semiconductor industry as to what’s required to be done in Karnataka.

Unless, the government of Karnataka found out that there have been no takers for the state semicon policy so far!

It seems to be the latter case!

Round-up 2010: Best of semiconductors

Right then, folks! This is my last post for 2010, on my favorite topic – semiconductors. If 2009 was one of the worst, if not, the worst year ever for semiconductors, 2010 seems to be the best year for this industry, what with the analyst community forecasting that the global semicon industry will surpass the $300 billion mark for the first time in its history!

Well, here’s a look at the good, the bad and the ugly, if available for otherwise what has been an excellent year, which is in its last hours, for semiconductors. Presenting a list of posts on semiconductors that mattered in 2010.

Top semiconductor and EDA trends to watch out for in 2010!

Delivering 10X design improvements: Dr. Walden C. Rhines, Mentor Graphics @ VLSID 2010

Future research directions in EDA: Dr. Prith Banerjee @ VLSID 2010 — This was quite an entertaining presentation!

Global semicon industry on rapid recovery curve: Dr. Wally Rhines

Indian semicon industry: Time for paradigm shift! — When will that shift actually happen?

Qualcomm, AMD head top 25 fabless IC suppliers for 2009; Taiwan firms finish strong!

TSMC leads 2009 foundry rankings; GlobalFoundries top challenger!

ISA Vision Summit 2010: Saankhya Labs, Cosmic Circuits are Indian start-ups to watch at Technovation 2010!

ISA Vision Summit 2010: Karnataka Semicon Policy 2010 unveiled; great opportunity for India to show we mean business! — So far, the Karnataka semicon policy has flattered to deceive! I’m not surprised, though!

Dongbu HiTek comes India calling! Raises hopes for foundry services!!

Indian electronics and semiconductor industries: Time to answer tough questions and find solutions — Reminds me of the popular song from U2 titled — “I still haven’t found what I’m looking for”!

What should the Indian semicon/electronics industry do now? — Seriously, easy to say, difficult to manage (ESDM)! 😉 

Need to develop robust Indian semicon industry, led by local companies!

I came across an article titled “Global Semiconductor Companies Turn to India for Growth” published on India Knowledge@Wharton. Isn’t this reason why global semiconductor companies enter a specific market in the first place — to grow their own markets and regions? So, why should it be different with India?

India is very well known globally for its talent, chip design capabilities (especially in the Indian arms of the global semicon firms) and as the world’s embedded bastion!

This particular article is brilliantly written, and kudos the author. The clinching paragraph is tucked away at the end, starting with: “None of the global players, however, is currently looking at setting up a semiconductor fabrication plant, or “fab,” in India.”

What’s happened up until now in the Indian semicon industry? If one were to look at the Special Incentive Package Scheme (SIPS), which was introduced back in Sept. 2007 by the government of India, it was geared toward encouraging investments for setting up semicon fabs, and other micro and nanotechnology manufacturing industries in India!

It also defined the “ecosystem units” as units, other than a fab unit, for manufacture of semiconductors, displays including LCDs, OLEDs, PDPs, any other emerging displays; storage devices; solar cells; photovoltaics; other advanced micro and nanotechnology products; and assembly and test of all the above products.

A Karnataka Semicon Policy was announced in early Feb. 2010, during the India Semiconductor Association’s ( ISA) Vision Summit.

Next, the government of India’s thrust on solar/PV, via the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JN-NSM), has at least ensured the country’s solar/PV future.

What has happened since all of these policies? Really, nothing much, at least from the perspective of the Indian semicon industry. If it has, at least, I am unaware, and my apologies for this ignorance.

Of course, solar/PV seems to be going from strength to strength! Recently, NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam Ltd (NVVN) put out the list of selected solar projects under the JN-NSM Phase 1, Batch 1. But that’s another story!

On this very blog, there are several posts that speak of India’s ability or inability to build a fab. At first, folks said that semicon fabs were on their way in India, and that the story isn’t disappearing. However, somewhere along the line, that particular vision took a beating and fabs simply disappeared from the Indian semicon radar!