Round-up 2010: Best of semiconductors

Right then, folks! This is my last post for 2010, on my favorite topic – semiconductors. If 2009 was one of the worst, if not, the worst year ever for semiconductors, 2010 seems to be the best year for this industry, what with the analyst community forecasting that the global semicon industry will surpass the $300 billion mark for the first time in its history!

Well, here’s a look at the good, the bad and the ugly, if available for otherwise what has been an excellent year, which is in its last hours, for semiconductors. Presenting a list of posts on semiconductors that mattered in 2010.

Top semiconductor and EDA trends to watch out for in 2010!

Delivering 10X design improvements: Dr. Walden C. Rhines, Mentor Graphics @ VLSID 2010

Future research directions in EDA: Dr. Prith Banerjee @ VLSID 2010 — This was quite an entertaining presentation!

Global semicon industry on rapid recovery curve: Dr. Wally Rhines

Indian semicon industry: Time for paradigm shift! — When will that shift actually happen?

Qualcomm, AMD head top 25 fabless IC suppliers for 2009; Taiwan firms finish strong!

TSMC leads 2009 foundry rankings; GlobalFoundries top challenger!

ISA Vision Summit 2010: Saankhya Labs, Cosmic Circuits are Indian start-ups to watch at Technovation 2010!

ISA Vision Summit 2010: Karnataka Semicon Policy 2010 unveiled; great opportunity for India to show we mean business! — So far, the Karnataka semicon policy has flattered to deceive! I’m not surprised, though!

Dongbu HiTek comes India calling! Raises hopes for foundry services!!

Indian electronics and semiconductor industries: Time to answer tough questions and find solutions — Reminds me of the popular song from U2 titled — “I still haven’t found what I’m looking for”!

What should the Indian semicon/electronics industry do now? — Seriously, easy to say, difficult to manage (ESDM)! 😉 

Mentor’s Wally Rhines on global EDA industry challenges – II

Dr. Wally Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics.

This is the concluding part of my discussion with Dr. Walden (Wally) C. Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor Graphics.

EDA’s role in modeling and photomask correction
I asked Dr. Rhines about the future of EDA’s role in modeling and photomask correction. He said that in just a decade, resolution enhancement has grown from zero to over $200 million in annual revenue for the EDA industry.

“Almost all of this revenue is concentrated in two EDA companies. The value of this EDA software is clearly recognized by manufacturers. Mentor has many partnerships with manufacturers and a joint development program targeting 20nm resolution enhancement with IBM.”

Handling 22nm and sub-22nm levels
Next, with new process technology nodes becoming quite the talk of the desgin community, what does EDA now need to do at 22nm and sub 22nm levels.

Dr. Rhines said: “We have been working with our customers on this for quite some time now and are in fact well down this path. We think that most of the problems have been solved, or are solvable. Obviously, most of the issues here revolve around the lithography and manufacturability, but the EDA industry has been leading this since optical proximity correction became a key technology for the fabs quite some time ago.”

Density area savings
In an earlier discussion, the issue of how compelling would integration density area savings remain by going to new nodes had come up. I have to repeat this question, as it still seems to remain an issue.

So, how long will the integration density area savings you get by going to new nodes remain compelling?

“Hard to say!” noted Dr. Rhines. “We can see a path to 15nm with the traditional 193nm immersion lithography, and we usually surprise ourselves in our ability to go farther than we think we can. However, even if density slows down, this is but one way to achieve the continuous performance improvements that we’ve seen over the years in silicon.

“3D silicon, for instance, holds the promise of allowing us to continue to grow performance without necessarily doing it by just continuing the process shrink. Logic and memory have been on a predictable “learning curve” since the vacuum tube and I don’t expect that learning curve to deviate anytime in the foreseeable future.”

Mentor's Wally Rhines on global EDA industry challenges – I

Dr. Wally Rhines, CEO and chairman, Mentor Graphics.

It has always been such a pleasure meeting Dr.  Walden (Wally) C. Rhines, CEO and chairman, Mentor Graphics Corp. During his recent visit to India, I managed to enter into a discussion with him regarding various issues facing the global EDA industry.

Part one of the discussion looks at the industry, as well as EDA related issues such as predictability, verification and IP integration, how can Mentor help start-ups address EDA challenges, and going about software-to-silicon verification. May I also take this opportunity to thank my good friend, Mentor’s Veeresh Shetty.

I began by asking Dr. Wally Rhines about the fortunes of the global EDA industry and what’s it going to be like in 2011?

He said: “The EDA industry typically follows the recovery in semiconductor industry R&D spending by six to 12 months. Mentor’s strong results in Q3 (with 60 percent growth in bookings) suggest that the recovery has already started. In our third quarter conference call, we indicated to our investors that 2011 looks like a good year as well.” 

Local know-how, innovation (Jugaad) keys to realizing semicon/electronics growth in India

“We can’t just rely on making chips,” said Neeraj Paliwal, VP and NXP India country manager, while delivering his keynote: Semiconductor products for Indian market – leapfrog R&D workforce to product creation, at the recently held Mentor Graphics U2U conference. Local know-how and innovation hold the keys to realizing growth in the Indian context.

According to him, the semicon industry has evolved from initially being technology driven to customer driven, and lately, society driven. Paliwal listed four key macro growth drivers in electronics: energy efficiency, connected mobile devices, security and health.

Energy efficiency
* Efficient power conversion and low stand-by power.
* Energy-saving lighting and back-lighting.
* Energy conservation through demand side management.
* Electric/lighter vehicles, intelligent traffic management.

Connected mobile devices
* Proliferation of mobile data usage, wireless infra build-out.
* Smart mobile devices: always-on, multimedia, location-based.
* Connected car, many broadcast & connectivity standards.
* New user interfaces (e.g., touch, joystick).

Security
* Secure mobile transactions and secure identity.
* Authentication, tagging and tracking.
* Car and home access, security and remote diagnostics.
* Radar and (body) scanning installations.

Health
* Personal healthcare and portable emergency devices.
* Connected hearing aids and implantable devices.
* Car safety and comfort.
* Electronic diagnostics.

Jugaad — Indian flavor of innovation
In the Indian context, local know-how holds the key to realizing growth! Here, Paliwal introduced “Jugaad” an Indian word, which simply means an improvisational style of doing things or innovation, largely driven by or making use of scare resources available.

There is a need to develop an innovation mindset with the focus on revenue growth to reach new markets. Well, it should help when the innovations look at solving local problems first, and later, go on to address related or similar international problems.

Some examples of Indian innovations, include Tata’s water filter for rural poor for $20, which does not run on electricity; and Tata’s Nano car, which aims to reach the bottom of the pyramid. Also, John Deere’s weather recession with help from innovation. In fact, innovation could well be India’s next global export.

India already has a National Innovation Council, with the aim to provide a broader plaform for innovation to redefine the understanding of innovation and move beyond the formal R&D paradigm. Another example of innovation — wireless kiosks for rural India.

EDA and emerging system design challenges: Dr. Wally Rhines

Dr. Wally Rhines.

According to Dr. Walden C. Rhines, CEO and chairman, Mentor Graphics, the emerging system design challenges likely to shape the industry in the coming decade are:

* Design for low power.
* Optimizing for performance and power.
* Functional verification complexity explosion.
* Place and route timing and power closure.
* Physical verification complexity.
* Manufacturing yields.
* Increasing cost of design.
* Macro system integration.

He was delivering the keynote titled EDA and emerging system design challenges at Mentor Graphics’ U2U India conference in Bangalore.

First, Dr. Rhines highlighted that the EDA market churn is often confused with industry consolidation. EDA requires specialization. The #1 supplier in each EDA product segment averages 66 percent+ market share. However, the traditional EDA market has not been growing.

EDA market snapshot
The synthesis market trend has seen a 2.7 percent CAGR, with a 10-year average of $293 million. The market size was $273 million in 2008, and slid to $243 million in 2009. In 2010, after the first two quarters, it is approximately $125-$130 million.

The RTL simulation market trend has seen a -0.3 percent CAGR, with a 10-year average of $365 million. The market size was $394 million in 2008, and slid to $345 million in 2009. In 2010, after the first two quarters, it is approximately $150 million.

The IC layout verification market trend has seen a 0 percent CAGR, with a 10-year average of $199 million. The market size was $199 million in 2008, and slid to $187 million in 2009. In 2010, after the first two quarters, it is approximately $80-$90 million.

The IC physical implementation market trend has seen a 2.4 percent CAGR, with a 10-year average of $559 million. The market size was $549 million in 2008, and slid to $448 million in 2009. In 2010, after the first two quarters, it is approximately $210 million.

The total PCB/MCM design market trend has had a 10-year average of $484 million. The market size was $535 million in 2008, and slid to $490 million in 2009. In 2010, after the first two quarters, it is approximately $220 million. PCB design has seen growth from analysis, design for manufacturing and new emerging markets.

Women power, RVCE rule at first annual Karnataka VLSI and embedded systems awards

RVCE, E&C, the winners!

It is always a pleasure to witness women power in technology! More especially, in India!! To my pleasant surprise, and am sure, of many others present, women power was aplenty at the first annual Karnataka VLSI and Embedded Systems Awards distribution ceremony held today at the RV-VLSI Design Center, Bangalore.

First, the winners! Congratulations to each one of them on their achievement!

VLSI category
Winner: Suraj H, Vinay R, Vinaya Ajjampura and Vasudev Pai M, RVCE, E&C.
Title: Design and verification of 16-bit pipelined microcontroller.

Runner-up: Deepika, Deepthi MN, Divya V Nayak, RVCE, Telecom — an all-women team!
Title: Design and verification of stand-alone DMA controller.

Embedded category
Winner: Praseed Chandriki, Prashant Bhat, Anup Reddy, Manoranjan S, RVCE, E&C.
Title: Implementtion of media transport in VoIP and performance analysis through measurement of QoS.

Runner-up: Ashwini HV, Sayak Bhowmick, Shruthi BR, Shruti S. Rao, Global Academy of Technology, E&C.
Title: DARAM driver for VoIP router.

It was announced that Mentor Graphics, along with STMicroelectronics, will be sponsoring next year’s awards.

Dignitaries at the first annual Karnataka VLSI and embedded systems awards.

This year’s contest was initiated by RV-VLSI in close association with VTU, and sponsored by Mentor Graphics. Dr. Walden C. Rhines, CEO and chairman, Mentor Graphics, graced the occassion. Dr. V.S. Acharya, the Honorable minister for Higher Education, Planning and Statistics, Government of Karnataka, who could not make it to the event owing to pressing official work, had his message read out.

Other digitaries present on the occasion included Hanns Windele, VP Mentor Graphics (Europe & India), Ian Burgess, Higher Education Program, Mentor Graphics, CV Hayagriv, Trustee, Rashtreeya Sikshana Samiti Trust, and chairman, governing council, RV-VLSI Design Center, AVS Murthy, honarary secretary, Rashtreeya Sikshana Samiti Trust, and Dr. MK Panduranga Setty, president, Rashtreeya Sikshana Samiti Trust (RSST).

RV-VLSI can tape-out multi-billion transistor chip today!
Venkatesh Prasad, CEO, RV-VLSI Design Center, said it was his interaction with a visionary like Dr. MK Panduranga Setty, and the support of the board of trustees of RSST that made it easy for him to transition out of the industry and start RV-VLSI. The vision of RV-VLSI is to create a steady stream of well trained professionals with a low TTP (time to be productive). To achieve a low TTP, it had to do things different from a traditional academic institution.

That differentiation started with the name, RV-VLSI Design Center itself, rather than RVDI. Next, the institute procured a Sun data center to meets its complex needs. Next, it gained access to foundry technology from Tower Semiconductor and EDA software from Mentor Graphics. Prasad added, ‘RV-VLSI has the infrastructure to design and tape-out a multi-billion transistor chip today.”

EDA Tech Forum 2010: Nanoscale regime and social product innovation!

This a continuation of my coverage of the Mentor Graphics’ EDA Tech Forum 2010.

Here, I shall discuss the main points of the two keynotes by Dr. Kota Murali, lead scientist & program manager of nanotech, IBM India, and Manjunatha Hebbar, VP & Head – Strategic Services, HCL Technologies Ltd — my good friend and fellow board member at the Indian Microelectronics Academy (IMA).

Nanotech for a smarter planet

Dr. Kota Murali, lead scientist & program manager of nanotech, IBM India @ EDA Tech Forum 2010.

Dr. Kota Murali, lead scientist & program manager of nanotech, IBM India, presented on nanotech for a smarter planet. The motivation for nanotech at IBM has been — since IT has grown as devices have shrunk. Now, we have reached the nanoscale level. The challenge is: how do we take new technologies to markets?

He briefly touched upon IBM’s latest generation processor, the Power7, built on 45nm. The next generation Power8 processors are supposed to be built on 22nm/32nm.

He said that physical and chemical properties of materials depend on the size. Hence, it is important to use nano and quantum scale properties for next generation devices. There is this classical scaling reality — to maintain generational performance gains, supply voltage is not scaled ideally, leading to major power issues.

In the future, innovation, scaling and power will drive performance. Power will play a critical role in developing next-generation products.

On the novel high-K metal gate (HKMG) devices, these gates are already four monolayers thick. We need HKMG since it significantly reduces gate leakage and chips consume lesser power. Also, it allows equivalent oxide thickness. The shrinking of transistor dimensions can continue unhindered.

Dr. Murali highlighted chemical quantization — which allows changes in device parameters, as well as energy quantization — which leads to changes in the fundamental current-voltage characteristics of a transistor. A material’s resistance can also change in the nanoscale regime.

GIDL or gate-induced drain leakage is quite relevant to low power devices. GIDL leakage currents are becoming prohibitively high. While HKMG has solved the tunnelling problem, the GIDL issue still remains. Rotating the conventional wafer from <110> to <100> reduces the GIDL by an order of magnitude.

Next, what’s the alternative to CMOS devices? These could be 3D transistors with better gate control at 15nm and beyond as well as carbon nanotubes. I checked the Web: carbon nanotubes are molecular-scale tubes of graphitic carbon with outstanding properties. They are among the stiffest and strongest fibres known, and have remarkable electronic properties and many other unique characteristics. Excellent!

Finally, how do you pattern all of these devices? Computational lithography enables density scaling. Challenges include pattern optimization tool, code parallelization, HPC and optics.

Spin electronics could be the next evolution — leading to spintronics devices at nanoscale.  Here, IBM’s Giant Magnetoresistive Head, which has been a giant leap for IBM Research, comes into play.

Social product innovation

Manjunatha Hebbar, VP & Head - Strategic Services, HCL Technologies makes a point!

In his keynote, Manjunatha Hebbar of HCL Technologies stressed that innovation is required at every level across the entire value chain. A compelling alternative would be the social product innovation, or democratization of product innovation.

Benefits of social product innovation are manifold. The prime ones are —
* right product for the right market at the right time at the right price;
* lowest direct cost; sharing of risk and reward;
* real-time on demand access to resources; and
* organic transformation with the market.

He cited the example of Apple’s iPhone, which was launched during the peak of recession. The rest is history, as this smartphone went on to change the dymanics of the mobile phone market!

Hebbar highlighted that the society itself has core values of social product innovation. The core purpose — help everyone have their lives! The focus should be on process innovation and prodct innovation, leading to business innovation.

Today, everyone is on the cloud, mobile, connected and reading everyone. Creative commons is the most accepted license model today. Co-creation is always welcome.

EDA Tech Forum 2010: Delivering the latest in 10X design improvements

Pravin Madhani, GM, Place and Route Division, Mentor Graphics.

I’ve just returned from Mentor Graphics’ EDA Tech Forum 2010, titled: Delivering the latest in 10X design improvements. The opening keynote by Pravin Madhani, GM, Place and Route Division, Mentor, could have been better — well, Dr. Walden C. Rhines, chairman and CEO, Mentor, had also delivered a similar lecture at this year’s VLSID 2010 conference.

However, the other two keynotes — by Dr. Kota Murali, lead scientist & program manager of nanotech, IBM India, and Manjunath Hebbar, VP & Head – Strategic Services, HCL Technologies Ltd, lived up to their billing.

The photomask industry is between the proverbial hard rock and the hard place. For instance, at 32nm, the mask cost works out to be $2 million today. In his keynote, Madhani said that the manufacturing industry would surely figure out a way to control mask costs.

Even fab costs are pretty high today — estimated at $50 billion in 2010, that is ~10 percent of the annual market. The global fab industry continues to figure out how to decrease costs. While design costs are projected to grow logarithmically, cost per function will continue to decline long after Moore’s Law is obsolete.

So, will we have any use for so many transistors? Down the years, growth in unit volumes has always distinguished the semiconductor industry. The semicon industry has been growing at 13 percent (10-year CAGR), while transistors have grown at 49 percent. These sit very well, as compared to say, computers – 9.3 percent, steel — 5.3 percent, and automobiles — 0.1 percent. The 49 percent transistor growth drives the semicon industry.

Madhani said that the note/netbook market seems to have several years of growth ahead. The Apple iPad has also created a new segment. Cell phone adoption has been in high-growth mode in the emerging markets. Smartphones are changing the video dynamics.

So, will applications require 10K more transistors by 2018? And, do we have the necessary design tools? Well, there will likely be a ~10K increase in transistors over the next eight years, going up to 40 billion transistors by 2018. Therefore, the industry will require tools ready now in order to design for 2018.

Four principal areas will require 10X improvements in design methodologies — system level design, verification, embedded software development, and back-end physical design and test. A 10X increase in the number of transistors will also require 1000X increase in verification.

In summary, reduction in costs per functionality will continue on a predictable learning curve long after Moore’s law is obsolete. The industry will also witness ~10X increase in transistors over the next eight years, leading up to 40 billion transistors by 2018.

Students, show off your technical talent @ Mentor's University Design Contest 2010!

I really envy the students of today! They live in such lucky times!! There are so many opportunities for them to learn, grow and flourish, and so many avenues to venture!!!

Here’s one more opportunity for those brilliant students from various engineering colleges across India.  Friends, you can participate and show off your techical talent by participating in Mentor Graphics’ University Design Contest 2010!

Mentor's Veeresh Shetty.

I was elated when Veeresh Shetty of Mentor Graphics informed me today about this great contest!  Thanks a lot, Veeresh, and Mentor Graphics India, especially, my friend Raghu Panicker, for taking time to think about spotting talent among students.

Time to participate and win, dear students!
First, what do the students get out of this contest? Well, there’s prize money involved! The top three winners will earn a Certificate of Recognition. There will be one Winner team followed by two runner-up teams. The winning team will be awarded a cash prize of $3,000, 1st Runner-up – $2,000 and 2nd Runner-up – $1,000, respectively.

So, what’s the purpose behind this contest? Well, this is the inaugural Mentor Graphics University Design contest 2010 in India.

The objective/focus of this contest is to provide an opportunity for engineering students to showcase their technical talent and competency using Mentor Graphics tools. The company expects to grow this contest with increased representation and participation, and draw maximum number of contestants.

Indian Microelectronics Academy (IMA) formed to build, nurture and grow start-ups!

Friends, it takes great pleasure to announce the formation of the Indian Microelectronics Academy (IMA), a brainchild of Cre8 Ventures, which was launched by Mentor Graphics UK Ltd in 2005 as an independent network. Cre8Ventures aims to help start-up electronic design companies achieve business success.

Carson Bradbury, director, Cre8ventures, spins off the Indian Microelectronics Academy!

The idea of the IMA was conceived and developed by Carson Bradbury, the mastermind behind the European Microelectronics Academy (EMA), who has helped this India chapter get off the ground. You can see him raising the salient points of the IMA to a select audience from the Indian microelectronics industry.

Carson also happens to be the director of Cre8Ventures, the initiative Mentor Graphics took back in 2003 to help the startups in Europe. During this period, Cre8Ventures has been able to help over 80 companies and create a healthy ecosystem for the startups.

On the IMA’s objective, Carson says: “It is to help enable a new breed of microelectronic companies that have the promise to become global by owning value chains. The strategy would be to establish new international communities whose tantalizing messages on the world stage is exploitation (US), execution (Asia) and innovation (Europe).”

As for the areas of focus, he adds that it will be “wherever there is a big unmet business need and the opportunity to own a value chain through microelectronics.” For details, visit http://www.indianmicroelectronicsacademy.com!

What will the IMA do for start-ups in India?
And, what will the IMA do for start-ups in India? In this regard, Carson says: “The IMA will uncover unmet business needs from big companies from Coca Cola to Tata and will solve the innovation gaps by creating/connecting start-ups and leveraging open innovation strategies from multi-national semiconductor companies.

“The IMA will help start-ups get to momentum through the experience, trust and influence of the high profile individuals which represent the IMA’s executive team and the contribution from industrialists (e.g. EDA, Foundry, IP, Assembly and Test, Software and Design Services) who’s ‘take’ is first mover advantage and who’s ‘give’ is risk sharing business models (e.g. spin-out, spin-in, IP donation/extraction).

“The IMA will then aim to take start-ups further down stream so when they get to Series A they will have triple A board rooms, markets defined, early adopter customers an first product/silicon in place.”

Now, I sincerely hope this is the story that the Indian semiconductor and electronics industry has, perhaps, been looking forward to! There is a pressing need to build, nurture and help start-ups to develop and grow. The IMA has the goal to make that happen! In that respect, this is your — the Indian microelectronics industry’s — story!

The IMA’s initial steps would be to actually start getting connected with the Indian startups who require immediate help and attention, and come out with its first success story, and more!

I also hope that the IMA can interest the other leading industry bodies in India to join hands and make this a very robust ecosystem that will serve the Indian industry in the years to come.

Why need an IMA?
So, why need an IMA in the first place? Well, the IMA has been formed in India with the objective of creating an ecosystem of bringing together all of the necessary pillars required to create successful startups and bridge the innovation gaps among the leading companies.

The idea is to also grow the GDP of the region based on a knowledge based economy. This is a proven concept, which worked for seven years in the form of Cre8Ventures in Europe. In 2010, Cre8Ventures first set up the EMA in Europe and now, the IMA in India!

Who’s involved in IMA?
Naturally, Carson Bradbury, the brain behind all of this, is heading the initiative!

The others in this team include Raghu Panicker, sales director, Mentor Graphics India, who plays the role of a non executive director in the Academy and brings the world class EDA tools required for the startups to the table.

Himanshu Rawal, account manager, Mentor Graphics India, will play the role of director, Cre8Ventures India. His charter in the Academy is to discuss and uncover the interests of the various startups, understand the innovation gaps of the leading companies and bring these in front of the Academy. On a personal note, many thanks to Himanshu for also providing valuable inputs for this post.

Yours truly has also been asked to join. I hope I can play a decent role in connecting the right dots together!

Calling all interested start-ups: to start a dialogue, please feel free to contact me — Pradeep Chakraborty — through this blog. You can also contact Himanshu Rawal at himanshu_rawal[at]mentor.com.