Introducing SemiWiki — knowledge repository for semicon design and manufacturing!
Friends, it is my pleasure to introduce SemiWiki, a website connected with the global semiconductor industry, a creation of my good friend, Daniel Nenni, otherwise, a renowned blogger on semiconductors and an industry expert!
SemiWiki is projected as a “knowledge repository for semiconductor design and manufacturing, facilitating peer-to-peer communications using Web 2.0 technologies.”
Indeed, it is a site, who’s time has come! As per the site, the SemiWiki project is a cloud based social media platform. It enables mass collaboration using Web 2.0 technologies — such as blogs, forums and wikis — to enable new channels of communication within the semiconductor design ecosystem.
Be careful though — there is REAL user based content and REAL TIME feedback! Don’t be lulled into thinking that some of the content and some (if not, more) of those users are fictitious! In other words, the SemiWiki is a great example of REAL social media having finally come to EDA, semiconductor, IP and foundries!!
I just stopped by the SemiWiki. The site really looks cool! There is a definite attempt to bring the industry together!
There seems to be a problem, or is it due to the newness of the site — the vendor map somehow opens on a page that asks you to sign up. Perhaps, Daniel Nenni should look into this at the earliest. The more content is freely available, the more will be its usage. Of course, the companies involved should look at paying some amount, if possible, and help the site and the owner.
It would be better if the SemiWiki is available in some (or several) languages — since English is not the spoken language in the East and Far East region. There seems to be more of American/English slant as of now! Maybe, that too will change, as SemiWiki progresses.
One post immediately caught my eye — ‘SemiWiki top influencers get Android tablets”! Man, what do I do to get hold of one (is Daniel listening? 😉 )?
Global semicon market set for slowdown due to deteriorating business climate!
I was going through a report sent out today, by Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, New Tripoli, USA, of the same title, and decided to get his thoughts.
Deteriorating business climate
According to The Information Network, The business climate for the semiconductor industry is deteriorating, as per its upcoming report, titled, “Hot ICs: Market Analysis and Forecast of the Top 15 IC Sectors”.
As per the report, along with fellow DRAM manufacturers Samsung, Hynix, Elpida, Micron, etc., will suffer from slowing sales of electronic gadgets and PCs. In the CPU sector, the slowdown in PC sales will affect Intel and AMD. Foundries such as TSMC and UMC will also be impacted.
As sales drop in electronic gadgets, the most pronounced affect will be in the DRAM sector, where sales grew 135 percent in Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2009. The drop in semiconductor sales will usher in a corresponding drop in semiconductor equipment and materials sales.
The front-end market will suffer pushouts and the lithography sector will be impacted most, where sales of $35 million immersion DUV tools have flooded the market of late.
Slowdown likely in world economies
He said: The semiconductor industry is directly correlated with the economies of the world, and there is a direct correlation with semiconductor sales and worldwide GDP. Our leading indicators (LI) point to a slowdown in the world economies.
“As these proprietary LIs are correlated with semiconductor revenues, we will se a slowdown in the next few months. We are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the PC and LED indistriies. Numerous public companies have given forward guidance that the next quarter will show some weakness.”
Given the good two quarters this year, how certain is The Information Netwok that the semicon market is now set for slowdown? Dr. Castellano cited similar reasons as above, adding: “Our LIs have an extremely accurate correlation with transition times. We have developed these LIs over the past 15 years.”
What’s the impact on foundries and silicon wafers?
Dr. Castellano said: “Foundries make their money from two sources: sales of ICs from fabless IC companies and sales of ICs from IDMs who do not have sufficient in-house capacity or sufficient technology capabilities for newer ICs. The macroeconomic effect will stymie sales for both revenue sources.”
Does The Information Network foresee an overcapacity situation in silicon wafers during 2011?
“No. We are forecasting 8.4 BSI (billion square inches) of Si wafers in 2010, which is up slightly from the 8.2 BSI in 2008. So, the Si manufacturers have the capacity already on hand. Semiconductor wafers will face competition from solar wafer consumption, which will double in 2010, but polysilicon is plentiful, and the two sectors, for the most part, use different crystal growing methods,” he added. Read more…
This downturn was NOT a classic semiconductor bust and boom, ignore industry fundamentals at your peril: Future Horizons
May’s results mean Q2-10 will show at least 8.3 percent quarterly growth over Q1-10, increasing the full year growth forecast to 36 percent. Given last year’s growth was minus 9 percent, mathematically this is a classic industry cycle. It is NOT, he insists.
At this point in the ‘recovery’, it is much more important to look at sequential and quarterly growth rates rather that the 12:12 rates, given the high double digit rates they show are just as misleading and irrelevant as the high double digit negative rates from this time last year. The reality is they net each other out thereby highlighting the real nature of the current cycle. This downturn was a pause, the recovery a restart, it was NOT a classic semiconductor bust and boom.
Future Horizons has been telling everyone very publicly that the industry recovery started in March 2009, first in the April 2009 edition of its Global Semiconductor Report, substantiated by a very long and detailed analysis at the Geneva IEF2009 Forum last October.
The recovery, together with ever-increasing substantiating data, has been a recurring theme in its Global Semiconductor Monthly Report ever since, as well as at the Dresden IEF2010 event in May 2010.
“While we obviously do not expect firms to run their business based on what we say, if the market recovery really has taken firms by surprise, executives from the top down either failed to recognise the significance of the data we were drawing their attention to over the past 15 months or they simply made the decision to ignore it. Ignore the industry fundamentals at your peril.”
Recovery not quite classic!
Future Horizons clearly states that this recovery is not a classic recovery. On being quizzed further, Penn said, “it was a dead stop and restart, just like hitting the pause button on your remote, rather than a crash and rebuild.” This is perhaps the same reason why the recession is now being termed as a market interruption.
Future Horizons has also been warning that industry was cutting back on the existing capacity far too much and too fast, while simultaneously failing to invest in net new capacity. Is the semicon industry still on this path?
Penn added: “Spending has now resumed (since Jan. 2010) and cut backs have stopped, but there’s a one-year time delay before these will start to impact. Why? Lack of industry confidence, driven too much by short-term financial performance, risk averse management and shareholders, lemming factor, etc.”
The long-term ramifications, should the industry fail to invest in net new capacity, are loss of sales and market position/leadership to those firms who did invest (e.g. TSMC, Samsung).
Well, it seems the global semiconductor industry has not learned enough from the previous recessions! Read more…
It’s back to chip market normal abnormality: Semicon update Aug. ’09
Fig. E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars, units and ASP for January 1997 to June 2009 inclusive. They need to be looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts provided in the Market Summary section of this report.
June’s total semiconductor sales came in at US$19.3 billion, heralding a US$51.7 billion second quarter, up 16.9 percent on Q1-09 (down 20 percent on Q2-08). This compares with Q1-09 that was down 15.3 percent on Q4-08 (down 30 percent on Q1-08) and confirms our 2009 forecast upwards revision, reported in last month’s Report and at our July Mid-Term Industry Forecast Seminar, that the worst of the chip market recession is now over.
We can now expect a seasonally strong Q3 (albeit not too strong) of around 12 percent growth on Q2-09 (down 16 percent on Q3-08) followed by a normal year-end slowdown in Q4 at plus 3 percent (up 14 percent on Q4-08) confirming our minus 14 percent forecast for the year as a whole. At last it is now back to industry normal abnormality.
There are wild fluctuations when looked at on an individual monthly basis meaning no single month’s data is a good indicator of the underlying trends. Each month is thus just another peg in the ground, especially during a period of rapidly changing conditions.
June’s minus 25.8 percent year-on-year growth thus looks closer to our original minus 28 percent forecast for the year, rather than the minus 14 percent we reforecast last month, but this does not take into account (a) the prospective second-half-year rebound and (b) the fact we will be measuring future 12:12 growth rates against a dynamic whereby the 2009 numbers are trending up whereas the 2008 numbers were trending down, amplifying the impact of the 2009 positive monthly trends. We should start to see this upward trend kick in again with the release of July’s WSTS data. Read more…
18pc Q2 vs. Q1 sequential growth… this improves 2009 to -14pc: Semicon update July. ’09
Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, July 2009, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. Those interested to know more about this report should contact Future Horizons.
Figure E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars, units and ASP for January 1997 to May 2009 inclusive. They need to be looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts provided in the Market Summary section of this report.
Following hot on the heels of April’s 16 percent month-on-month sales growth, May grew a further 0.9 percent sequentially (0.4 percent for ICs), putting June on track to break through the US$20 billion barrier, for the first time since the chip market collapsed last September.
It would also set up Q2-09 to show 18 percent quarter on quarter growth, joining only three such precedents in the history of the industry when such a strong second-quarter growth spurt has occurred. The big question now is: “Is this the start of the chip market recovery or a blip on the statistics radar screen?” The short answer is both, the industry’s not out of the woods yet, but the chip market will recover faster than the economy. The stage is now set for a strong market rebound in 2010-11.
We are clearly in the midst of a serious industry recession but different from all previous historical precedents. As we have counselled before, going into this recession (the 12th in the industry’s 60-year history) the industry was in structurally good shape; that is something that has rarely happened before.
In addition, while the economy clearly drives the overall market for semiconductor devices, the correlation is poor meaning chips march to their own drum not just the economic pulse. Both of these factors mean that the chip market can (and will) recover much faster than the economy as a whole.
With the benefit of hindsight, the whole world clearly over-reacted to the 14 September 2008 Lehman Bros collapse, something again with hindsight the US officials probably now regret letting happen, and the massive destocking that followed masked the underlying residual demand. For sure markets too were down but they only declined not evaporated completely. The impact on IC unit demand was a victim of this uncertainty. Read more…