It’s Q1 seasonal slowdown, and yearly time for denial!

This is a summary by Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons. For those who wish to know more, please get in touch with me or Future Horizons.

Malcolm Penn, CEO, Future Horizons.

December’s WSTS results were as boring as they were predictable, with no serious data revisions (thankfully) and the results right where we expected. December’s year-on-year IC unit growth was 8.9 percent that, with the 3.5 percent growth (yes GROWTH) in ASPs, yielded a respectable double-digit value growthof 12.8 percent. And this, on the back of a weak Q4 memory market that saw ASPs fall 13.1 percent vs Q3-10!

The yearly growth vs 2009 weighed in at 31.8 percent, hitting $298.3 billion, just shy of the elusive $300 billion threshold. The market is right where we said it would be at our recent 2011 Forecast seminar; we reiterate our position that 2011 will be a good year for the industry. Choppy first-half waters for sure, but watch out for a whopping 2H-11 ricochet.

Connectors are up as well
It is not just semiconductors that are off to a good start. The connector industry is tight as a drum too. Orders in December 2010 were up 13.3 percent versus December 2009, with full year orders up 29.3 percent on 2009, down sequentially 11.1 percent from November 2010. The comparable data for sales was plus 18.7percent, plus 28.4 and minus 13.7 percent.

The December connector book-to-bill ratio was 1.01, unchanged from November. This industry still publishes orders and book-to-bill data by the way, unlike the chip industry which very foolishly stopped publishing this several years ago. All this in the seasonally slow first quarter of the month, yet few people believe there is a supply problem in prospect. Just as this time last year, industry denial is rampant, way beyond reasonable caution and ignoring the underlying trends.

Strong demand for mobile, server and graphics DRAM
We estimate that the worldwide growth rate for PCs in 2011 will be a healthy 10 percent, with 3.9GB the average DRAM content per box. New capacity and die shrinks are putting near-term pressure on over-supply and pricing but there are now move afoot from Elpida and others to start raising prices.

Where they can, to gain a price advantage, DRAM vendors are actively adjusting their supply in favour of mobile from commodity DRAM, given the current strong demand in the smartphone and tablet PC markets, with a 1GB per box average DRAM content.

Server demand continues to be the other star segment, not just in unit demand but in content per box as well, estimated to average around 30GB in 2011. This will drive a 50 to 60 percent increase in server DRAM demand. Finally in graphics demand for specialty DRAM is also very strong, driven by the rapid take off of3D-TV and continuing strong growth in Blue-Ray DVD.

The overall DRAM industry is thus gradually diversifying from manufacturing mainly commodity DRAM to diversified products such as mobile DRAM, serverbasis DRAM, specialty DRAM and graphic memory.DRAM vendors however are faring mixed fortunes, with Elpida and Hynix having the worst net cash positions with barely enough cash to cover their short-term debt.

The Taiwanese vendors find themselves stuck in a technology trap, unable to invest in the immersion technology needed to break through the 5*nm node, meaning that in the absence of a good market uptick to improve cash flow and profits, a shake out in the DRAM supply base seems unavoidable.

Introducing SemiWiki — knowledge repository for semicon design and manufacturing!

Friends, it is my pleasure to introduce SemiWiki, a website connected with the global semiconductor industry, a creation of my good friend, Daniel Nenni, otherwise, a renowned blogger on semiconductors and an industry expert!

SemiWiki is projected as a “knowledge repository for semiconductor design and manufacturing, facilitating peer-to-peer communications using Web 2.0 technologies.”

Indeed, it is a site, who’s time has come! As per the site, the SemiWiki  project is a cloud based social media platform. It enables mass collaboration using Web 2.0 technologies — such as blogs, forums and wikis — to enable new channels of communication within the semiconductor design ecosystem.

Be careful though — there is REAL user based content and REAL TIME feedback! Don’t be lulled into thinking that some of the content and some (if not, more) of those users are fictitious! In other words, the SemiWiki is a great example of REAL social media having finally come to EDA, semiconductor, IP and foundries!!

I just stopped by the SemiWiki. The site really looks cool! There is a definite attempt to bring the industry together!

There seems to be a problem, or is it due to the newness of the site — the vendor map somehow opens on a page that asks you to sign up. Perhaps, Daniel Nenni should look into this at the earliest. The more content is freely available, the more will be its usage. Of course, the companies involved should look at paying some amount, if possible, and help the site and the owner.

It would be better if the SemiWiki is available in some (or several) languages — since English is not the spoken language in the East and Far East region. There seems to be more of American/English slant as of now! Maybe, that too will change, as SemiWiki progresses.

One post immediately caught my eye — ‘SemiWiki top influencers get  Android tablets”! Man, what do I do to get hold of one (is Daniel listening? 😉 )?

Why has the semicon equipment bubble really burst? – II

Here’s the concluding part of my discussion with Dr. Robert Castellano of The Information Network, from New Tripoli, USA.

Repercussions of a deteriorating semiconductor industry
I asked Dr. Castellano regarding the repercussions of a deteriorating semiconductor industry.

He said that the semiconductor equipment industry seems to be in serious trouble. There could possible be little growth in 2011, and the how is that there will be sufficient pushouts in equipment that revenues are moved to 2011 from 2010.

Dr. Castellano said: “We warned two months ago about pushouts, and today, Veeco stated that they “recently experienced rescheduling of tool shipments from the fourth quarter into the first quarter by several customers in Korea and Taiwan.” In other words, pushouts! We will continue to see this more and more.

“Problem is, will the equipment vendors admit it? ASML vehemently denied any customers’ pushouts last quarter, but with tools selling for $35 million each and customers such as Nanya and Inotera announcing losses, there is no way in creation pushouts won’t happen.

“Then, there is the issue of 450mm wafers. The only ones pushing it are the semicons, because they recognized that they could generate twice the number of chips for almost the same capital equipment cost. The equipment industry was dramatically impacted by the 300mm transition, and growth was nearly flat from 2001 to 2009. Not so for the semicons.

“No equipment supplier wants 450mm, it is being pushed by Sematech and Intel, plus a consortium in Europe that feels that perhaps 450mm will knock off competitors and they can make up the vacuum in sales. Only the top 15 equipment suppliers will survive.”

How will pushouts benefit the industry?
On the subject of industry pushouts being highlighted time and again, it is also necessary to see whether and how will these benefit the industry in the long run.

Besides the reasons mentioned above, semiconductor sales are intimately tied to the economy. There is a direct correlation between semiconductor sales and GDP, as well as the PLIs of The Information Network. If the economy is robust, more money is available to purchase electronic items containing semiconductors. The reverse is true, indicative of the present economic climate.

The Information Network has also indicated that firms will announce lower results, and it’d get worse in the following quarter. Why will this happen and which firms could be likely ‘hurt’?

Dr. Castellano said: “This will happen because the crest in the tidal wave was only reached in the past month or so, and it is a long and slippery slope down because it went so high up to begin with.

“The DRAM manufacturers will be hit the hardest. Growth was strongest for them for the first half of the year, where sales grew 135 percent in Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2009.”

Is there a way out? If yes, when?
Finally, when will there be some recovery in the semiconductor equipment sales and why? Surely, as with everything, there has to be a way out!

Dr. Castellano concluded: “We see minimal growth in 2011, again depending on macroeconomic factors. We see two years of downturn in the industry – 2012 and 2013.”

Global semicon market set for slowdown due to deteriorating business climate!

Now that’s going to be very interesting, should it happen! After close to two quarters of robust growth experienced by the global semiconductor industry, a slowdown was bound to be around the corner!!

I was going through a report sent out today, by Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president of The Information Network, New Tripoli, USA, of the same title, and decided to get his thoughts.

Deteriorating business climate

Dr. Robert N. Castellano, president, The Information Network.

According to The Information Network, The business climate for the semiconductor industry is deteriorating, as per its upcoming report, titled, “Hot ICs: Market Analysis and Forecast of the Top 15 IC Sectors”.

As per the report, along with fellow DRAM manufacturers Samsung, Hynix, Elpida, Micron, etc., will suffer from slowing sales of electronic gadgets and PCs. In the CPU sector, the slowdown in PC sales will affect Intel and AMD. Foundries such as TSMC and UMC will also be impacted.

As sales drop in electronic gadgets, the most pronounced affect will be in the DRAM sector, where sales grew 135 percent in Q2 2010 compared to Q2 2009. The drop in semiconductor sales will usher in a corresponding drop in semiconductor equipment and materials sales.

The front-end market will suffer pushouts and the lithography sector will be impacted most, where sales of $35 million immersion DUV tools have flooded the market of late.

Slowdown likely in world economies

I quizzed Dr. Castellano as to why the semiconductor business climate is deteriorating.

He said: The semiconductor industry is directly correlated with the economies of the world, and there is a direct correlation with semiconductor sales and worldwide GDP. Our leading indicators (LI) point to a slowdown in the world economies.

“As these proprietary LIs are correlated with semiconductor revenues, we will se a slowdown in the next few months. We are already seeing signs of a slowdown in the PC and LED indistriies. Numerous public companies have given forward guidance that the next quarter will show some weakness.”

Given the good two quarters this year, how certain is The Information Netwok that the semicon market is now set for slowdown? Dr. Castellano cited similar reasons as above, adding: “Our LIs have an extremely accurate correlation with transition times. We have developed these LIs over the past 15 years.”

What’s the impact on foundries and silicon wafers?

So, how will all of this impact the foundries?

Dr. Castellano said: “Foundries make their money from two sources: sales of ICs from fabless IC companies and sales of ICs from IDMs who do not have sufficient in-house capacity or sufficient technology capabilities for newer ICs. The macroeconomic effect will stymie sales for both revenue sources.”

Does The Information Network foresee an overcapacity situation in silicon wafers during 2011?

“No. We are forecasting 8.4 BSI (billion square inches) of Si wafers in 2010, which is up slightly from the 8.2 BSI in 2008. So, the Si manufacturers have the capacity already on hand. Semiconductor wafers will face competition from solar wafer  consumption, which will double in 2010, but polysilicon is plentiful, and the two sectors, for the most part, use different crystal growing methods,” he added.

This downturn was NOT a classic semiconductor bust and boom, ignore industry fundamentals at your peril: Future Horizons

According to Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO, Future Horizons, May’s semiconductor sales were up 2.6 percent on April, 3.6 percent for ICs, continuing the steady sequential industry growth that started in January 2009, 17 months ago.

May’s results mean Q2-10 will show at least 8.3 percent quarterly growth over Q1-10, increasing the full year growth forecast to 36 percent. Given last year’s growth was minus 9 percent, mathematically this is a classic industry cycle. It is NOT, he insists.

At this point in the ‘recovery’, it is much more important to look at sequential and quarterly growth rates rather that the 12:12 rates, given the high double digit rates they show are just as misleading and irrelevant as the high double digit negative rates from this time last year.  The reality is they net each other out thereby highlighting the real nature of the current cycle.  This downturn was a pause, the recovery a restart, it was NOT a classic semiconductor bust and boom.

Future Horizons has been telling everyone very publicly that the industry recovery started in March 2009, first in the April 2009 edition of its Global Semiconductor Report, substantiated by a very long and detailed analysis at the Geneva IEF2009 Forum last October.

The recovery, together with ever-increasing substantiating data, has been a recurring theme in its  Global Semiconductor Monthly Report ever since, as well as at the Dresden IEF2010 event in May 2010.

Penn added: “At the same time I have been warning that industry was cutting back existing capacity far too much and too fast whilst simultaneously failing to invest in net new capacity. Our clear message always was that these two factors were a recipe for disaster. The disasters are now starting to happen.

“While we obviously do not expect firms to run their business based on what we say, if the market recovery really has taken firms by surprise, executives from the top down either failed to recognise the significance of the data we were drawing their attention to over the past 15 months or they simply made the decision to ignore it. Ignore the industry fundamentals at your peril.”

Recovery not quite classic!
Future Horizons clearly states that this recovery is not a classic recovery. On being quizzed further, Penn said, “it was a dead stop and restart, just like hitting the pause button on your remote, rather than a crash and rebuild.” This is perhaps the same reason why the recession is now being termed as a market interruption.

Future Horizons has also been warning that industry was cutting back on the existing capacity far too much and too fast, while simultaneously failing to invest in net new capacity. Is the semicon industry still on this path?

Penn added: “Spending has now resumed (since Jan. 2010) and cut backs have stopped, but there’s a one-year time delay before these will start to impact. Why? Lack of industry confidence, driven too much by short-term financial performance, risk averse management and shareholders, lemming factor, etc.”

The long-term ramifications, should the industry fail to invest in net new capacity, are loss of sales and market position/leadership to those firms who did invest (e.g. TSMC, Samsung).

Well, it seems the global semiconductor industry has not learned enough from the previous recessions!

Global semicon industry update: 30 percent growth now on radar for 2010, says Future Horizons

Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, January 2010, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. The report also covers market trends. Those interested to know more may contact Future Horizons.

November’s IC sales continued the year-end rally, down just 2.4 percent on October, up 29.3 percent vs. November 2008. This confirms our earlier prediction that Q4-09 sales would be up around 6.4 percent on Q3-09, one of the strongest year end-closes on record – Q4 sequential growth is typically ‘zero plus minus 2 percent’.

This confirms that 2009 will come in close to our minus 10 percent forecast, most probably at minus 9.7 percent, setting 2010 up for a bumper double-digit growth year. Only a Lehman Brothers-type event can now derail the recovery, the future is bright, and not before time too. For far too long now doom and gloom has spoilt the chip market horizons. Industry faith has been stretched beyond the limit.

Ignoring the structurally (and typically) wild individual monthly fluctuations – which simply means no single month’s data is a good indicator of the underlying trends – November’s result places us comfortably within our minus 10 percent 2009 growth estimate.

Based on November’s WSTS data, it is now very difficult to see anything less than a 22 percent growth year for the semiconductor market in 2010 based on the current industry momentum (i.e. a fourth quarter growth of around 6.4 percent) and a very ‘average’ quarterly growth pattern for 2010. Indeed we are now starting to see the first industry guidance revisions that tend to indicate even this range might be low. If the current growth momentum holds firm, 2010 chip market growth could easily hit 30 percent.

Low double-digit growth is totally out of the question, growth in single digits an absolute impossibility, Figure E3. Either of these scenarios would need a very poor start to the year, which is simply not happening. Order books are strong, inventory levels are low, capacity is tight and demand is holding up. You could not wish for a better start to the year … what a difference from this time 12 months ago. Only a massive economic collapse can now spoil the party.

As we mentioned before, only a massive economic disruption like a Lehman Brothers bankruptcy can now derail the recovery and this is not being forecast by the economists. Quite the opposite, GDP data is trending more and more positively, with an upwards revision at the macro level more likely than not. This is not to say that the economic recovery is not fragile, it is far from out of the woods and many risks still remain.

Of the ‘not so good news’, to our minds the biggest single problem is the world’s financial systems remain unreformed and, worse still, unrepentant. This means the same issues that caused the global financial problem in the first place remain unchecked. In 1929, Wall Street’s shamed bankers jumped from their office windows. In 2009 they stood in line for their bonuses. From a chip market perspective, a sound economic base is important but the correlation is poor.

Whereas a collapsing GDP will trigger a chip market downturn, just as it did in the 2001 dot com bust and September 2008 Lehman Brothers collapse, the rates of recovery are independent of each other. For example, the economy recovered faster than the chip market after 2001 whereas the chip market is leading the recovery in 2009.

The extent of the market collapse can be gauged by looking at the peak to trough data, showing over one third of the chip market simply disappearing overnight. Except ASPs, despite this massive decrease in demand, ASPs help firm, in fact they rose a modest 1 percent. One year after the chip market collapsed, units and value have now recovered to 98 and 90 percent respectively of their Q3-08 (market peak) value, with ASPs coming in just 8 percent lower.

This is quite an extraordinary recovery, seeing as it took a full two quarters more for the world to exit recession. It happens though because there was no chip market bubble prior to the downturn.

With the memory market now in full flood of recovery – we can easily see an upside potential of a $60 billion market for 2010 – and memory prices increasing with barely a flinch from the market, 2010 is set to be a very good year for the industry. The only problem is that no one yet believes it.

Confidence has been shattered ever since the 2000 bust, with a glass half empty mindset dominating collective thinking. “Market growth is now single digit; ASPs will keep on falling; Where are the killer products to drag the chip world out of recession; We need to specialise, merge, narrow the R&D scope, cull the product line and above all dump all the fabs; outsource for capital and operating efficiency; etc”.

Well, to coin a phrase once used by Jerry Sanders III, “Nuts!” It was only 2004 when growth hit 28 percent just after an 18 percent growth in 2003. Better get planning now, it’s already too late.

Freescale's Rich Beyer on semicon and industry trends

Here’s the synopsis of the keynote address by Rich Beyer, chairman and CEO, Freescale Semiconductor at FTF India 2009, at the Hotel Leela Palace Bangalore, on September 02, 2009.

This year we have 64 hours of technical training classes apart from extensive selection of Freescale and third-party demos in our Technology Lab. Since we met last year, the industry has experienced the greatest economic challenges in generations that had an unprecedented global impact, and no region has been immune from its effects.

India, Asia’s third largest economy, seems to have been less affected by the global economic slowdown, primarily because India’s economy is driven largely by domestic demand and is not as dependent on exports. Interest rate cuts and a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 7 percent of India’s GDP helped the economy grow by almost 6 percent in the first quarter of this year, making it the world’s fastest growing economy after China.

From a global perspective, the markets are stabilizing, and we hope that the worst is over. However, in order to compete effectively, businesses will need to become more efficient and more agile, at least for the next few years.

One of the core purposes of this FTF is to demonstrate our efforts and progress in providing you with the best possible solutions to help develop products and systems that enable your companies to win.

In Networking, multicore processors are essential to delivering the industry-leading levels of integration, performance and energy-efficiency required for next-generation communications systems. However, testing and optimizing application software for systems based on embedded multicore processors can be a time-consuming task. To help solve this challenge, Freescale has introduced our VortiQa software, a production-ready, application-level software specifically for our multicore solutions to dramatically reduce the time needed by you, our customers, for your development tasks.

To enable rapid prototyping for our microcontrollers, we have introduced the Freescale Tower System, a modular development platform with reconfigurable hardware that enables developers to mix and match MCU and peripheral boards to save both money and months of development time through rapid prototyping and tool re-use. To streamline embedded designs with our acceleration, pressure or proximity sensors, Freescale has introduced the Sensor Toolbox. This is a unified set of development software, customizable plug-and-play boards and complimentary sensor algorithms to help you get the most out of your sensor-related designs.

For the past several years, we have concentrated on three major trends that we feel represent the engines of our future growth i.e. Net Effect, Health and Safety and Going Green.

India is the world’s fastest growing mobile market, and 3G high-speed transmissions of voice, video and data is seen as the next growth driver for telecom firms in India. In Health and Safety, Freescale is helping enable monitoring solutions like glucometers and insulin pumps.  Our embedded processing technologies deliver best-in-class performance with low-power consumption and integrated RF connectivity that help diabetes patients avoid acute complications like hypoglycemia and kidney failure. Real-time cardiac monitoring solutions are allowing patients with heart disease to live a life without constant fear. Our high-performance 32-bit embedded processors, digital signal processors and digital signal controllers help provide accurate and secure portable heart monitoring solutions for those suffering from hypertension, arrhythmias and cardiac failure. In Wellness and fitness applications from pedometers to treadmills and digital bicycles are beginning to incorporate functions like calorie counters and heart rate monitors. Freescale’s microcontroller portfolio delivers one of the best price-performance ratios available for these applications.

Safety is also an extremely important trend in the world today and is the utmost requirement in the automotive market. Safety features introduced years ago like anti-lock braking, air bags and tire pressure monitoring systems are being integrated with completely new capabilities like active safety equipment that can actually help prevent accidents before they happen. Advanced safety systems like adaptive cruise control, lane departure warning and radar for object detection will add embedded intelligence to the vehicle for a higher level of safety, efficiency and convenience. We will begin to see vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure wireless communications. Embedded intelligence in the vehicle will be able to recognize traffic signs – to maintain the proper speed limit or alert the driver about approaching stop signs. And sensors will be able to detect pedestrians around the vehicle and monitor that the driver is alert and aware.

Our third growth trend is Going Green. Energy is embedded in virtually every aspect of our lives energy efficient devise will make an enormous difference. The prospect of rising oil prices and global warming has intensified the demand for more fuel efficient vehicles while at the same time meeting ever-tightening standards on emissions. In the consumer market, many countries around the world are instituting new standards to eliminate “vampire electronics”, those devices that consume a huge amount of energy even as they spend time in standby mode. The industrial sector accounts for about 37-percent of the global energy consumption. Through the use of high-efficiency motors, improved process control, automation, information processing, and robotics, we can help save the energy output equal to hundreds of coal-fired power plants.

So, those are the global trends that we feel will drive our markets today and for the foreseeable future. Now I would like to talk about the growth opportunities we see here in India and provide some insights into what Freescale is doing to address these.

Let’s start with the Automotive industry.

India’s automotive industry has reached a pivotal moment. The rise of ultra-low cost four-wheel vehicles is expected to grow the domestic market by more than one million units by 2013.  By 2012, India is expected to account for 20 percent of the increase in global car sales, surpassing the markets in Italy and Spain. At that point, India could become the leader in small-car growth. For India to become a major player in the global automotive market, a key challenge will be to engineer cars that meet stringent international emissions and safety standards. Freescale is uniquely positioned and strongly committed to helping develop the capabilities of the India automotive industry. We have partnered with the industry’s leading manufacturers and suppliers to help drive standards for component software and interconnectivity. As emerging automotive markets like India continue to gain momentum, vehicles will need cost-optimized solutions that incorporate more advanced chassis and safety systems, like airbags, tire pressure monitoring systems, and electronic stability control. Freescale offers a full range of system solutions that can scale to higher performance as needed.

Next, I want to talk about the growth of India’s networking infrastructure. Over the last few years, India’s telecommunications landscape has seen rapid growth. The 3G wireless spectrum will allow the transmission of voice, data and video at high speeds to mobile devices. Freescale is playing a key role in delivering the performance improvements and the cost reductions required to bring these next-generation networks to life.

We are the global leader in embedded communications processors.  The ever-increasing amounts of digital data are continuing to push the need for high-speed data processing. And along with this need for speed are the increasing expectations of reliability, security and the overall quality of service.

As an industry, we have been talking about 3G technology, but 3G is just now coming into widespread adoption, and with the latest innovations in Long-Term-Evolution, or LTE, we are seeing even more broadband capability becoming available.

Freescale has played a leadership role in this infrastructure growth with our RF, communications processor and DSP technology.

Our QorIQ multicore communications platforms are providing new levels of performance and low-power consumption. These products are all based on our e500 Power Architecture cores and are designed for 45-nanometer technology. Earlier this year we began sampling our first dual-core QorIQ communications processor. Given the positive feedback, we are accelerating the introduction of our eight-core QorIQ processor. This device is being combined with our new six-core DSP to provide a comprehensive solution for wireless infrastructure equipment for advanced 3G and 4G systems.

Together our Starcore DSPs and QorIQ-based microprocessors in 45 nanometer technology can help reduce the bill-of-material costs in a 10 MHz LTE base station by as much as 60 percent, while simultaneously reducing power consumption by 50 percent.

More than a century after the invention of the light bulb, today’s energy grid is little different from the one envisioned by Thomas Edison one-hundred-twenty-seven years ago.

The smart grid will play a critical role in the development of India’s economy in the future.

India is home to more than one-point-one billion people, making it the world’s second largest population. And by 2025, India’s urban population is expected to increase by 50 percent.

The Indian government is investing heavily in new power plants, and this includes renewable sources such as wind and solar energy. However to take advantage of these new sources, there will need to be a new delivery system, or smart grid, that can handle a generation mix with a high percentage of renewable energy sources.

Smart electric meters will be one of the first steps toward establishing two-way communication between the home and the utility companies. Freescale is an industry leader in smart meter technology. We offer low-power and low-cost solutions for single-phase and three-phase meter measurement. Our product portfolio includes microcontrollers with LCD drivers, and digital signal controllers for power modem functions, integrated ZigBee solutions for wireless communication, and accelerometers for antitamper security.

Once smart meters are deployed, building automation networks will help create an energy gateway to connect to home thermostats, smart appliances and other energy-intensive devices. Countries around the world are beginning to implement smart grid technologies to increase energy efficiency and incorporate renewable energy sources that will reduce our global carbon footprint.

There is a new category of handheld devices that deliver connectivity and convenience for an integrated multimedia experience. These include e-book digital readers that are transforming paper-bound media into connected infotainment devices, and they include the new smartbook Internet devices that are filling the gap between traditional notebook computing and smartphone communications.

These devices are driven by the common market characteristics of affordability, portability, Internet connectivity and all-day battery life. Freescale is delivering a common solution based on our i.MX multimedia application processors.

I am excited about the opportunities for growth in India, and I am constantly impressed by the innovation and ingenuity demonstrated by India’s talented engineers.

We are grateful to have the opportunity to share our product directions and tell you about the new and innovative solutions that we are bringing to the marketplace.

Let’s go make the world a smarter place.

Here’s the synopsis of the keynote address by Rich Beyer, chairman and CEO, Freescale Semiconductor at FTF India 2009, at the Hotel Leela Palace Bangalore, on September 2, 2009.

Rich Beyer, chairman and CEO, Freescale Semiconductor

This year we have 64 hours of technical training classes apart from extensive selection of Freescale and third-party demos in our Technology Lab.

Since we met last year, the industry has experienced the greatest economic challenges in generations that had an unprecedented global impact, and no region has been immune from its effects.

India, Asia’s third largest economy, seems to have been less affected by the global economic slowdown, primarily because India’s economy is driven largely by domestic demand and is not as dependent on exports. Interest rate cuts and a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 7 percent of India’s GDP helped the economy grow by almost 6 percent in the first quarter of this year, making it the world’s fastest growing economy after China.

From a global perspective, the markets are stabilizing, and we hope that the worst is over. However, in order to compete effectively, businesses will need to become more efficient and more agile, at least for the next few years.

One of the core purposes of this FTF is to demonstrate our efforts and progress in providing you with the best possible solutions to help develop products and systems that enable your companies to win.

On networking
In networking, multicore processors are essential to delivering the industry-leading levels of integration, performance and energy-efficiency required for next-generation communications systems.

However, testing and optimizing application software for systems based on embedded multicore processors can be a time-consuming task. To help solve this challenge, Freescale has introduced our VortiQa software, a production-ready, application-level software specifically for our multicore solutions to dramatically reduce the time needed by you, our customers, for your development tasks.

To enable rapid prototyping for our microcontrollers, we have introduced the Freescale Tower System, a modular development platform with reconfigurable hardware that enables developers to mix and match MCU and peripheral boards to save both money and months of development time through rapid prototyping and tool re-use.

It’s back to chip market normal abnormality: Semicon update Aug. ’09

It’s back to chip market normal abnormality: Semicon update Aug. ’09

Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, Augsut 2009, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. Those interested to know more about this report should contact Future Horizons.

Fig. E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars, units and ASP for January 1997 to June 2009 inclusive. They need to be looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts provided in the Market Summary section of this report.

June’s total semiconductor sales came in at US$19.3 billion, heralding a US$51.7 billion second quarter, up 16.9 percent on Q1-09 (down 20 percent on Q2-08).  This compares with Q1-09 that was down 15.3 percent on Q4-08 (down 30 percent on Q1-08) and confirms our 2009 forecast upwards revision, reported in last month’s Report and at our July Mid-Term Industry Forecast Seminar, that the worst of the chip market recession is now over.

We can now expect a seasonally strong Q3 (albeit not too strong) of around 12 percent growth on Q2-09 (down 16 percent on Q3-08) followed by a normal year-end slowdown in Q4 at plus 3 percent (up 14 percent on Q4-08) confirming our minus 14 percent forecast for the year as a whole.  At last it is now back to industry normal abnormality.

There are wild fluctuations when looked at on an individual monthly basis meaning no single month’s data is a good indicator of the underlying trends. Each month is thus just another peg in the ground, especially during a period of rapidly changing conditions.

June’s minus 25.8 percent year-on-year growth thus looks closer to our original minus 28 percent forecast for the year, rather than the minus 14 percent we reforecast last month, but this does not take into account (a) the prospective second-half-year rebound and (b) the fact we will be measuring future 12:12 growth rates against a dynamic whereby the 2009 numbers are trending up whereas the 2008 numbers were trending down, amplifying the impact of the 2009 positive monthly trends. We should start to see this upward trend kick in again with the release of July’s WSTS data.

Table E1 restates the 2009 growth by quarter for our three growth rate scenarios, reiterating our belief that minus 14 percent is still the most likely outcome, the

worst-case scenario being only minus 16 percent. The forecast is thus relatively insensitive to the actual Q3/Q4 numbers (within reason).

There are still several wild cards however in play. Units are now much better aligned with real demand but ASPs are all still over the map, hardening in memories but weak in logic. So too is near-term fab capacity, with tight-geometry 300mm capacity now getting tight but ‘loose-geometry’ 200mm capacity still plentiful. This will send mixed signal on pricing over the second-half of the year, which in turn is likely to lull the industry into a false state of complacency.

The July move into positive territory of the Front-End Book-to Bill ratio may have finally broken the 34-month spell of a book-to-bill less than parity (i.e., since Sept 2006 aside from the 2 two-month blips), Figure E3, the actual spend numbers are still derisory in absolute terms. Spending is still currently more to do with linebalancing

adjustments than capacity build out and will do nothing to alleviate the 2010 capacity shortage.

The Cap Ex billings run rate is circa $800m/month, supporting a chip sales rate of $16b/month; that is barely 5 percent of sales. So, either we have suddenly got 3x

mega-efficient at building ICs (we have not) or we are building ourselves a massive capacity problem down the road (we are). The foundries (i.e. TSMC) will be the beneficiaries.

Fresh data points are now arriving each week indicating that the global electronics industry is rebounding from its 2008-09 financial meltdown. DRAM and PC sales are up with the impetus for renewed growth and recovery coming from Asia.

The IMF is currently forecasting a return to world GDP growth in 2010 at +2.5 percent, up from its +1.9 percent estimate made earlier this year, but the world could just as easily tip into a second global recession triggered either by the current sharp rise in oil prices or downstream inflation caused by the current excess liquidity and the longer-term need to increase interest rates everywhere.

Interest rate rises will hit everyone very hard indeed, especially those firms and individuals over-extended in debt, currently saved only by interest rates at near zero levels. We are thus nowhere near out of a moribund economy woods, indeed it is more likely to get worse before it gets better making a W-shaped economic recovery the most likely scenario, unless the economic balance of power has shifted to Asia as the new engine of economic growth for the 21st century.

Industry Capacity

Table C1 shows the quarterly semiconductor equipment sales trends for the period Q1-2008 through Q2-2009 inclusive. Total Q2-2009 equipment sales were US$2,666 million, down 13.3 percent from Q1-2009, which in turn was down 34.8 percent from Q4-2008. This represents the fifth successive double-digit quarterly fall in Cap Ex spend, unprecedented in the history of the chip industry.

Wafer processing equipment represented 72 percent of the total, just slightly lower than its 75 percent average. Total Q2-2009 investment represented only 7.2 percent of the quarterly semiconductor sales, although it must be remembered that an equipment sale in Q2-2009 will not produce incremental semiconductor sales until three quarters later, namely Q1-2010.

Q2-2009 wafer fab equipment sales were down 67 percent on Q2-2008, the fifth consecutive quarterly high double-digit drop, with further declines in prospect, albeit at a likely slower rate, bringing 2009’s Cap Ex in at between 50-60 percent down on 2008. Cap Ex levels are now running at levels not seen since the early 1990s when the overall chip market was one-third its current size.

The quarterly trends are not much better with Q2-2009 front end Cap Ex down 17.2 percent versus Q1-2009. This was on top of the four previous quarterly declines of 35.3 (Q1 vs Q4), 22.6 (Q4 vs Q3), 20.3 (Q3 vs Q2) and 27.2 (Q2 vs Q1) percent respectively.

It should not be forgotten that these cutbacks were not triggered by the current chip market recession; the first two quarterly drops, namely Q2 and Q3-2008, took place against a backdrop of strong IC unit growth, i.e. well before the Q4-2008 chip market collapsed. In other words, these cutbacks were premeditated not diagnostic which makes the current capacity dynamics different from before. The cutbacks were thus a clear intent to engineer tight capacity, a strategy that would by now have bitten home had it not been for the cruel interruption of the Q4-2008 market collapse. This time is different … this has NEVER happened before.

Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, August 2009, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. Those interested to know more about this report should contact Future Horizons.

Fig. E1 -- 12/12 Worldwide IC Monthly Growth Rates

Fig. E1  shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars, units and ASP for January 1997 to June 2009 inclusive. They need to be looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts provided in the Market Summary section of this report.

June’s total semiconductor sales came in at US$19.3 billion, heralding a US$51.7 billion second quarter, up 16.9 percent on Q1-09 (down 20 percent on Q2-08).  This compares with Q1-09 that was down 15.3 percent on Q4-08 (down 30 percent on Q1-08) and confirms our 2009 forecast upwards revision, reported in last month’s Report and at our July Mid-Term Industry Forecast Seminar, that the worst of the chip market recession is now over.

We can now expect a seasonally strong Q3 (albeit not too strong) of around 12 percent growth on Q2-09 (down 16 percent on Q3-08) followed by a normal year-end slowdown in Q4 at plus 3 percent (up 14 percent on Q4-08) confirming our minus 14 percent forecast for the year as a whole.  At last it is now back to industry normal abnormality.

There are wild fluctuations when looked at on an individual monthly basis meaning no single month’s data is a good indicator of the underlying trends. Each month is thus just another peg in the ground, especially during a period of rapidly changing conditions.

June’s minus 25.8 percent year-on-year growth thus looks closer to our original minus 28 percent forecast for the year, rather than the minus 14 percent we reforecast last month, but this does not take into account (a) the prospective second-half-year rebound and (b) the fact we will be measuring future 12:12 growth rates against a dynamic whereby the 2009 numbers are trending up whereas the 2008 numbers were trending down, amplifying the impact of the 2009 positive monthly trends. We should start to see this upward trend kick in again with the release of July’s WSTS data.

18pc Q2 vs. Q1 sequential growth… this improves 2009 to -14pc: Semicon update July. ’09

Here are the excerpts from the Global Semiconductor Monthly Report, July 2009, provided by Malcolm Penn, chairman, founder and CEO of Future Horizons. There are a lot of charts associated with this report. Those interested to know more about this report should contact Future Horizons.

Fig. E1: 12/12 Worldwide IC Monthly Growth Rates

Figure E1 shows the 12/12 worldwide monthly growth rates for IC sales in dollars, units and ASP for January 1997 to May 2009 inclusive. They need to be looked at in conjunction with the other 12/12 and rolling 12-month charts provided in the Market Summary section of this report.

Following hot on the heels of April’s 16 percent month-on-month sales growth, May grew a further 0.9 percent sequentially (0.4 percent for ICs), putting June on track to break through the US$20 billion barrier, for the first time since the chip market collapsed last September.

It would also set up Q2-09 to show 18 percent quarter on quarter growth, joining only three such precedents in the history of the industry when such a strong second-quarter growth spurt has occurred. The big question now is: “Is this the start of the chip market recovery or a blip on the statistics radar screen?” The short answer is both, the industry’s not out of the woods yet, but the chip market will recover faster than the economy. The stage is now set for a strong market rebound in 2010-11.

We are clearly in the midst of a serious industry recession but different from all previous historical precedents. As we have counselled before, going into this recession (the 12th in the industry’s 60-year history) the industry was in structurally good shape; that is something that has rarely happened before.

In addition, while the economy clearly drives the overall market for semiconductor devices, the correlation is poor meaning chips march to their own drum not just the economic pulse. Both of these factors mean that the chip market can (and will) recover much faster than the economy as a whole.

With the benefit of hindsight, the whole world clearly over-reacted to the 14 September 2008 Lehman Bros collapse, something again with hindsight the US officials probably now regret letting happen, and the massive destocking that followed masked the underlying residual demand. For sure markets too were down but they only declined not evaporated completely. The impact on IC unit demand was a victim of this uncertainty.