Cowan's LRA model: 2010 YoY semicon sales to grow 34.6 percent

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here is the latest update to the Cowan LRA model-derived forecast results reflecting the just released “actual” May sales.

2010 YoY sales growth forecast of 34.6 percent

The actual May global semiconductor sales, as announced by the WSTS, came in at $24.007 billion, which is up 45.4 percent from last year’s May sales of $16.509 billion and up 2.6 percent from last month’s (revised) sales of $23.391 billion (revised upwards slightly from last month’s released April sales number of $23.385 billion).

Therefore, the latest updated 2010 sales forecast estimate determined by the Cowan LRA forecasting model is $304.696 billion corresponding to a 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast of 34.6 percent.

These latest forecasted 2010 sales and sales growth numbers increased from last month’s reported forecast estimates of $301.865 and 33.4 percent, respectively. These improved results reflect the relatively strong May sales number as reported by the WSTS.

The full complement of the latest, updated sales and sales growth forecast estimates for 2Q, 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are detailed in the table below along with 1Q’s actual numbers.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (July 2010).

Additionally, next month’s June 2010 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $28.291 billion, which would result in a June 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $25.230 billion.

The 3MMA sales is normally published by the SIA in its monthly press release to characterize the semiconductor industry’s monthly sales and sales growth posture. The SIA’s June 3MMA is scheduled to be announced on Tuesday, Aug 3, 2010.

Evolution of various semicon analysts growth forecasts for 2010

Earlier this month, Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, had provided me with the latest update on forecast results as gleamed from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model incorporating the “actual” April sales.

As a follow-on to his April 2010 global semiconductor forecast numbers, Mike Cowan constructed (and updated) a table (sourced from the GSA website in order to compare the latest 2010 sales growth forecasts from a large number of leading market researchers to his latest sales growth forecast estimate of 33.4 percent.

Notice that for the thirteen (13) yellow-highlighted market researchers shown in the attached table (including mine), 12 of the market watchers have increased their most recent forecast year-over-year sales growths to a range of 22.6 percent to 33.4 percent with a mean sales growth forecast of 28.7 percent (28.4 percent without Cowan’s forecast number).

As revealed in the table, Cowan’s most recent 2010 sales growth forecast estimate is the most bullish of the bunch (at least for this month; stay tuned for my monthly forecast numbers as the year plays out!).

Also note that the just published (last week – June 8 and 10, respectively), WSTS and SIA Spring 2010 forecast sales growth results for 2010 are included in the table.

Source: Cowan's LRA model.

Global semicon sales forecast estimates based on Cowan’s LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2010 global semicon sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semicon sales.

The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) today (6-02-10) posted the April 2010 actual sales numbers on its website. Consequently, this is the latest update to Mike Cowan’s forecast results as gleamed from running the Cowan LRA forecasting model incorporating the “actual” April sales.

The actual April global semiconductor sales as released by the WSTS came in at $23.385 billion, which is up 43 percent from last year’s April sales of $16.354 billion and down 11.9 percent from last month’s sales of $26.553 billion, (which was revised upward slightly from last month’s published sales of $26.533 billion).

Therefore, the latest updated 2010 sales number predicted by the Cowan LRA model is $301.865 billion corresponding to a year-over-year sales growth of 33.4 percent for 2010.

These latest sales and sales growth are up from last month’s reported forecast estimates of $294.981 and 30.3 percent, respectively. These upward results reflect the relatively strong April sales as reported by the WSTS.

The full complement of the latest sales and sales growths forecast estimates for 2Q, 3Q, 4Q and 2010 are summarized in the table below along with 1Q’s actual numbers.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model.

Additionally, the May 2010 global semiconductor sales forecast estimate is projected to be $22.743 billion, which would yield a May 3MMA sales forecast estimate of $24.227 billion, which is normally published by the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) each month in order to characterize the semiconductor industry’s growth posture.

Update on global semicon sales forecast estimates: Cowan's LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2010 global semicon sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semicon sales.

These latest forecast numbers are displayed in the second table below and are based upon the recently posted figures on the WSTS website Mar. 2010 actual sales result of $26.533 billion with a corresponding 3MMA of $23.060 billion. The actual 1Q/10 sales came in at $69.101 billion.

It should be noted that there were very minor upward revisions to both January and February actual sales numbers relative to the previous monthly published global semiconductor sales numbers as highlighted below:

Global semicon sales forecast estimates: Cowan’s LRA model.

Source: Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (May 2010).

The updated sales forecast estimate for 2010 — $294.98 billion — shows a drop from last month’s forecast estimate — $298.88 billion. This corresponds to a decrease in the year-over-year 2010 sales growth estimate of 1.8 percentage points, namely from 32.1 percent to 30.3 percent.

Latest global semicon sales forecast estimates: Cowan's LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2010 global semicon sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semicon sales.

The table provided below summarizes the latest updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates derived from the Cowan LRA Model and is based upon the just published (by the WSTS) February 2010 actual sales results.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

The updated sales forecast estimate for 2010 (of $298.88 billion) shows a large drop from last month’s forecast estimate (of $316.20 billion).

This corresponds to a decrease in the year-over-year sales growth estimate of 7.6 percentage points, namely from 39.7 percent to 32.1 percent.

Source: Cowan LRA model.

It should be noted — the latest WSTS actual monthly sales numbers for Feb. reveal a (strong) downward revision to last month’s Jan sales (down $0.530 billion) as summarized here.

It should be emphasized that each month’s actual global sales number published by the WSTS is a “lagging indicator” since it is released a full month after the fact.

The Cowan LRA Model, however, “turns” this lagging monthly sales number into a “leading indicator” by virtue of its near-term forecasting capability looking out over the next five quarters.

This is the “beauty” of the model and, therefore, makes it dynamic in the sense that it can be run each month utilizing the most recent actual global S/C sales number published by the WSTS.  Thus it allows “rigorous tracking” of the near-term sales forecast outlook for the global semiconductor industry on an “almost” real-time basis.

Consequently, the model’s monthly sales forecasts do not “sit still” but “evolve” with each month’s latest sales number.  Since conditions change rapidly and unexpectedly in the semiconductor industry, market forecasters are hard pressed to keep up with these changes.

Global semiconductor sales forecast: Cowan's LRA model (based on Nov. 2009 sales data)

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. I would like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2009 and 2010 global semiconductor sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semiconductor sales.

The presently updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently published November 2009 actual sales numbers released by the WSTS (posted on its website on Jan 4, 2010).

The table below details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next five quarters, that is, from 4Q09 through 4Q10, respectively, as well as for the full years of 2009 (including 4Q09) and 2010.

NOTE – This is the last forecast for 2009 since next month’s sales data from WSTS, namely for Dec 2009, will “wrap up” the year (2009 will become history!) and the model will “shift focus” to 2010 forecast expectations and beyond!

As the table below shows, the latest updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates increased by +1.9 percent and +0.5 percent, respectively, to $222.1 billion and $236.5 billion compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $217.9 billion and $234.0 billion, respectively.

The updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to yr-o-yr sales growth forecast estimates of -10.6 percent and +6.5 percent, respectively, which represent a continuing improvement compared to last month’s sales growth prediction of -12.6 percent for 2009 but, however, no change from last month’s same sales growth forecast estimate of +6.5 percent for 2010.

Table Summarizing Latest Cowan LRA Model’s Sales & Sales Growth Forecast Estimates For The Next Five Quarters

Cowan's LRA Model: Sources: WSTS / SIA (Actuals); Cowan LRA Forecasting Model (Forecast Estimates).

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Additionally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for December 2009. Thus December’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $20.023 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA (three Month Moving Average) sales forecast estimate of $21.28 billion as is normally published by the SIA.

Global semiconductor sales forecast: Cowan's LRA model

This is a continuation of my coverage of the fortunes of the global semiconductor industry. Here, I’d like to acknowledge and thank Mike Cowan, an independent semiconductor analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA model, who has provided me the latest numbers.

Here are the latest forecast results for 2009 and 2010 global semiconductor sales estimates associated with the forecasting model — the Cowan LRA model for predicting worldwide semiconductor sales.

The presently updated global semiconductor sales forecast estimates are based upon the recently published October 2009 actual sales numbers released by the WSTS.

The table details the latest, updated forecast numbers covering the next five quarters, that is, from 4Q09 through 4Q10, respectively, as well as for the full years of 2009 and 2010.

As the table below shows, the latest updates for years 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates increased by +2.6 percent and +2.1 percent, respectively, to $217.9 billion and $234 billion, compared to last month’s sales forecast estimates of $212.3 billion and $229 billion, respectively.

The updated 2009 and 2010 chip sales forecast estimates correspond to year-on-year sales growth forecast estimates of -12.3 percent and +7.4 percent, respectively, which represent a continuing improvement compared to last month’s sales growth predictions of -14.6 percent for 2009, but a slight decrease from last month’s sales growth forecast estimate of +7.9 percent for 2010.

Table Summarizing Latest Cowan LRA Model’s Sales & Sales Growth Forecast Estimates For Next Five Quarters

Latest quarterly sales and year-on-year sales growth forecast estimates -- Cowan LRA model.

Remember that the model is dynamic, that is, is recalculated each month as the year plays out; therefore today’s latest, updated full year sales growth prediction will not sit still but will evolve over the coming months.

Additionally, the model also projects a sales forecast estimate for next month, namely for November 2009. Thus November’s (actual) sales forecast estimate is projected to be $18.32 billion, which corresponds to a 3MMA (three-month moving Aaverage) sales forecast estimate of $21.45 billion as normally published by the SIA.