Round-up 2009: Best of solar photovoltaics

Part III in the series ‘Round-up 2009’ features the top posts in solar photovoltaics during the year gone by. Some friends and readers have spent hours searching for blog posts. Hope this list will help them to easily find the blog post they are looking for. Here you go!

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS

Dramatic price forecast to reshape PV industry: iSuppli

Opportunities in India’s solar/PV landscape: SEMI India

More mature PV industry likely post solar downturn: iSuppli

How is PV industry reacting to oversupply conditions?

Dr. Robert Castellano on how to make solar a ‘hot’ sector again – 1

Dr. Robert Castellano on how to make solar a ‘hot’ sector again – 2

Consolidation likely in solar cell manufacturing to control oversupply, and, lessons for India!

Top-10 solar cell suppliers in 2009: iSuppli — This was also a top read article during 2009!

Solar PV industry scenario in India!

Rising opportunities in India’s solar PV space

Highest efficiency Si solar cells realised with n-Si — Prof. Weber, Fraunhofer ISE

Solar Semiconductor’s Hari Surapaneni on why solar is good for India!

India major destination for solar/PV investments!

Dynamics of the global PV industry

Prof. Eicke R. Weber, Fraunhofer Institute on future of PV

Solar PV and Utility 2.0: Making the grid smarter!

Union Cabinet approves National Solar Mission; 20 GW by 2022 (not 2020)! — The day and event everyone’s waited so very patiently for long in the Indian solar/PV industry!

Indian government unveils National Solar Mission Plan document!

What’s next in PV equipment?

Again, it is extremely difficult for me to list the Top 10. If you can decide, that’ll be great.

Best wishes to my dear friends, well-wishers and everyone for a happy and prosperous 2010!

Prof. Eicke R. Weber, Fraunhofer Institute on future of PV

Transformation into a green energy future requires focus on rapid development of all RE sources esp., wind, solar PV, solar thermal, hydro and bio mass, said Prof. Eicke R. Weber, Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE and Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany. He was delivering the keynote at the recently held Solarcon India 2009 show.

Today, less than 0.1 pecent of solar energy is being used to produce electricity. Looking at 2050 and 2100, there will be widespread use of solar energy.

Drawing on the challenges of today‘s situation, he said that the the world had experienced the largest financial and economic crisis in the last 80 years. Limited availability of fossil fuels and the dangers of catastrophic climate change will remain our key challenges.

The crisis may actually accelerate the global transition into a green energy future, which requires increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production, rapid development of all renewable energies as well as expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart users.

Touching on the magnitude of solar energy, Prof. Weber said that each hour the sun delivers to earth the amount of energy used by humans in a whole year. Sun radiation onto earth corresponds to 120,000 TW. However, the total human energy need in 2020 is 20 TW. PV can easily supply substantial part of world’s energy needs.

The annual global installation of PV modules was 600 MWp in 2003 and was above 5 GWp in 2008 — far above the most optimistic prediction. The forecast for 2010 is greater than 12 GWp.

The PV market today is still dominated by crystalline solar technology with about 85 percent market share – thin film technology has 15 percent.

Prof Weber also spoke about the technologies in the global PV industry including the higher efficiencies possible from multiple junction cells.

He highlighted the importance of attractive feed-in tariffs to develop a great PV market as has been the case in Germany. To bring down costs of PV, we need to install GW and TW of solar energy, he added.

Giving the example of the path to grid parity in Germany, Prof. Weber noted that the electricity pricing from solar PV will be less than the pricing from conventional sources of electricity in Germany by 2014.

Prof Weber concluded:
* Our climate goals can only be achieved with rapid introduction of renewable energies worldwide; among those, harvesting solar electricity will be a leading technology, as solar energy is virtually unlimited available.

* Direct PV energy conversion is based on semiconductor technology; the price will follow a steep learning curve, so that solar energy will get competitive with electricity from fossil and nuclear sources.

* Electricity from solar thermal energy conversion (CSP) claims cost advantages today, and has advantages in heat storage; however, the learning curve seems to have a smaller slope, so that PV might create lowest-cost solar electricity.

* Crystalline Si will most probably remain the dominant PV technology for quite some time, thin film PV like a-Si, CI(G)S and CdTe can capture a large market share if efficiencies reach the 15 percent-range.

* Concentrating photovoltaics, CPV, with high-efficiency III-V multi-junction cells and gentle land use, have a good opportunity in high-sunshine regions.

* Ultimately, the solar energy market will develop into a 100s of bn-$ market, providing millions of jobs and energy without fuel costs worldwide.

India major destination for solar/PV investments!

“Green energy is the order of the day,” stated K. Rosaiah, Hon’ble chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. “It is the responsibility of every country and every citizen to see that our dependence on conventional energy can be reduced to the extent possible, and to focus our efforts on the development of renewable energy sources.”

He was speaking at the ongoing Solarcon India 2009, a three-day exhibition and conference organized by Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), in association with Intersolar, and in partnership with the India Semiconductor Association (ISA) and FabCity.

According to him, a sizeable gap exists between the demand and supply of energy. Solar energy becomes critical in the context of climate change and global warming. The Prime Minister had launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change in June 2008.

The Solar Mission Plan, to be announced on November 14, aims to achieve 20GW of solar generation capacity by 2020. There are plans to deliver on the creation of 1 lakh new jobs during the course of the plan.

“At present, solar energy was high on absolute costs compared to other sources of power. The Solar Mission would definitely drive the cost as rapidly as possible,” the chief minister said.

He added that Solarcon India had attracted 67 exhibitors from 16 countries, and over 400 delegates. This will be an annual event from now on, to showcase FabCity and SolarCity initiatives of the state government.

Now, it is time for India!
Earlier, delivering the welcome address, BV Naidu, chairman, India Semiconductor Association (ISA) said that the Solarcon India 2009 was happening at the right time and at the right place. “We have heard the success stories in the USA, Japan, Germany, etc. Now, it is time for India!”

He added that Andhra Pradesh had leap frogged in solar PV, and hence, this event was being held in Hyderabad. Also, FabCity has taken the lead in managing to attract manufacturing. Among the 15 proposals on solar PV received by government of India under the semiconductor policy, five proposals have been submitted by companies located in Andhra Pradesh. According to him, Andhra Pradesh had the capability to take on at least 20 percent target of the solar mission plan, given the kind of leadership the state has shown so far.

Naidu further advised that Andhra Pradesh was also going to host the Fraunhofer ISE, which will be set up here. Prof. Eicke R Weber, director, Fraunhofer Institute, will be signing the MoU to set up the institute in India.

Highest efficiency Si solar cells realised with n-Si — Prof. Weber, Fraunhofer ISE

Prof. Eicke R. Weber, director, Fraunhofer ISE, Germany, will be delivering the opening keynote at the inauguration of the SOLARCON India 2009 and India Semiconductor Association (ISA) PV Conclave next Monday in Hyderabad.

Thanks to ISA’s help, I was able to get into a conversation with him, where he elaborated on the capabilities of n-type solar cells, how the solar PV industry is dealing with recession, and well, lessons to learn for India.

Why n-type is better than p-type solar cells?
Researchers at Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE have developed new methods and cell concepts for the manufacture of n-type silicon solar cells. What are the capabilities of n-type silicon solar cells that makes them better than p-type?

Prof. Weber said: “The main challenge in the operation of a solar cell is to collect the minority carriers created by sun illumination. Silicon solar cells are commonly made from p-type silicon, mainly because the carrier mobility of the minority carriers, electrons for p-Si, is higher than that of holes, the minority carriers in n-type Si.

“However, if contamination plays a role, which is especially the case for highest-efficiency cells, n-type silicon has distinct advantages because metal atoms like to form electrically active pairs with acceptor dopants that degrade performance.

In n-type silicon are donor dopants instead of the acceptor dopants in p-Si, so that carrier lifetime is better than in p-type Si. This can more than compensate the disadvantage of lower minority carrier mobility. Therefore, highest efficiency Si solar cells are usually realised with n-Si.”

Fraunhofer CSE has also opened a new PV module lab for research, development, testing and evaluation of new materials and production processes for photovoltaic solar modules with the aim to increase module energy yield, reduce cost, and extend module durability.

There is a Fraunhofer CSE in Boston and a Fraunhofer ISE in Freiburg. At the CSE in Boston, it is just starting with the process to establish such a new testing facility. However, this facility is already in place at the Fraunhofer ISE in Freiburg.

How can solar makers turn around?
Solar manufacturers are said to be already losing money this year and the capacity utilization is 27.9 percent. Also, the days of inventory are currently 122, up from 71 days in 2008. If they continue to add new capacity, things will only worsen, exasperating the recession, it can get difficult for them to turn this around.

Prof. Weber said that right now, there is already again a shortage in the module market.

“In Germany, we will see in 2010 at least a 10 percent decrease of the feed-in rate for new systems, so that after the substantial price drops in the first half of 2009 the second half of 2009 offered an unusually lucrative opportunity for the installation of PV systems.

“It remains to be seen whether this market pull will be carried into 2010. On the two-three year time scale the key question will be when the US market really starts, at best by offering in selected staters a lucrative feed-in rate.

“I am convinced, if this demonstrates quick market penetration as we experienced in Germany it will quickly spread throughout the USA, generating a PV market much larger than the German market as the US enjoys many high-sunshine regions in the South.

Lessons for India
Obviously, there are lessons to learn for the Indian solar/PV industry.

As per Prof. Eicke Weber, the key issue for increasing the PV market is to create attractive options for investors.

“In grid-connected systems this can be best done by attractive feed-in rates that have to be tailored for the respective region, and should offer 8-12 percent annual return from the produced PV electricity.”

In off-grid systems, the state might offer investment or tax incentives to allow the creation of lucrative investment opportunities, he added.